The Warriors vs. conventional wisdom
The same qualities that make watching Stephen Curry the best part of the regular season turn him into such a mystery in the postseason. He's so unorthodox and surprising. Those aren't the main attributes you look for in the playoffs. You want reliable, even if it's predictable. Traditionally, the titles go to those who can succeed even when the opposition knows exactly what's coming.
Unless Curry isn't just leading the Golden State Warriors, he's leading a revolution.
The conventional wisdom tells you to expect the unconventional in these NBA playoffs. Whether you base your projections on something as reflective as the regular-season standings or as speculative as the Las Vegas sportsbooks, we're in for something rare, even if the chalk holds and the No. 1 overall seed Warriors win a championship.
Only once in the past 33 seasons has a team won a championship after failing to win a playoff series the year before: the 2007-08 Boston Celtics. Well, four of the teams with the five best records in the NBA this season didn't win a playoff series last year, a tag that applies to the Warriors, Atlanta Hawks, Houston Rockets and Memphis Grizzlies. Throw in the Cleveland Cavaliers and Chicago Bulls and five of the top six betting favorites (according to Bovada) did not win a playoff series last year.
The exception among the bettors' six is San Antonio, but the Spurs must battle their own historical albatross: that little thing about never winning back-to-back championships.
Everyone else is going to attempt to skip steps. Teams normally don't teleport from the curb to the penthouse. They need to cross the sidewalk, go through the lobby and take the elevator up. Even adding generational talents such as LeBron James (to the Miami Heat in 2010) and Shaquille O'Neal (to the Lakers in 1996) has not been enough to circumvent the process.
The Warriors didn't make any drastic roster moves. They did change coaches, another action that would put them on a short list of champions should they win it: The only coaches to win it all in their first year with a team since 1980 are Pat Riley and Paul Westhead with the Lakers, K.C. Jones with the Celtics and Larry Brown with the Pistons.
The Warriors flourished because they got more from what they had. An improved Draymond Green. A healthier Andrew Bogut. A more prolific Klay Thompson. A more confident Harrison Barnes. And most of all, a more efficient Curry.
Now Curry has to give them more than what he gave them in last season's playoffs. Much more. The Clippers made containing Curry the focal point of their defense when they met in the first round last year. For the most part it worked. Curry was held below 20 points in three of the seven games (the Warriors lost two of those three). With that template in place, expect other teams to trap Curry early in the offensive sets.
"Teams are going to try to take me out of my rhythm, take the ball out of my hands," Curry said. "If they're going to double closer to half court, then I'm going to take full advantage of the guys we have on our team.
"I need to be aggressive, and that [Clippers defense] might have made me passive. But I'm not abandoning our offensive principles to just be out there for myself. If the defense is catering to 4-on-3, I'm going to take advantage of that for my team."
Curry's passing -- he was sixth in the league in assists per game as well as sixth in scoring -- is a way to keep defenses honest. He doesn't really have the option of just overpowering defenders and bullying his way to the basket or to the free throw line.
If Curry, as expected, wins the MVP award he would be another exception. Twenty-six of the previous 30 MVP winners were among the top 15 in the NBA in free throw attempts during the regular season. Curry was 26th this season. Larry Bird was 44th and 22nd in 1984 and 1985, and Steve Nash was 83rd and 73rd in 2005 and 2006.
Getting foul calls on the road to distract the opposing fans (who either become withdrawn or turn their attention to the officials) and pick up some easy points at the line is a key attribute for star players. Curry did average more free throw attempts and score more points on the road this season (in part because the Warriors were so dominant at home that he frequently sat out fourth quarters). And, of course, he cashes in when he does shoot free throws, at a rate of 90 percent.
Then again, maybe that inside-out way of thinking is pass.
Two statistical notes that came through my Twitter timeline yesterday highlighted the changing nature of today's NBA. The first, from Synergy Sports Tech (@SynergySST), highlighted the 2014-15 leaders in post-up production. Al Jefferson was the leader in points scored, points created via pass-outs and points created via passes out of double teams. DeMarcus Cousins was second in the latter two categories. Both of their teams missed the playoffs.
The second stat came from Basketball Reference (@bball_ref) and noted that only two seasons of a player attempting more than seven 3-pointers per game and making at least 44 percent of them were Curry this season and Curry in 2012-13. So at a time when the low post means less and three-point shooting means more, the Warriors have the greatest 3-point threat in the history of the league.
But can the Warriors still play their freewheeling style in the playoffs, when everything is supposed to grind to afternoon-commute pace? There's no reason they can't. Yes, their first-round opponent, New Orleans, and potential second-round opponent, Memphis, are among the slower-paced teams in the league. That doesn't mean the Warriors can't dictate tempo, especially in games at Oracle Arena.
The Warriors put up 112 points in each of their two home games against the Pelicans this season, and scored 128 in overtime in their first game in New Orleans.
They like to go small against the Grizzlies and dare Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph to keep up with them. The Warriors scored 107 points the last time they went to Memphis, with the Grizzlies' lineup more complete than it is right now. So the playoffs don't mean an automatic scoring drought.
"If you play, if you defend, if you get out and move the ball, then it's the same game," Warriors coach Steve Kerr said. "People want to make it out like the game's going to slow down. If you look at the Spurs last year, they scored more points per game in the playoffs than they did in the regular season."
So did the Warriors, Rockets and Clippers, for that matter. "I think the game's changed," Kerr said. "I think that adage was true 10-15 years ago, where the game slowed down. There's no question the defense gets better in the playoffs, but I think you can still play with great pace."
That bit of conventional wisdom has gone by the wayside. Can a group of guys that hasn't played past Memorial Day before be the team that has the confetti raining on its heads in June? Can a wispy 3-point shooter dominate the playoffs?
Curry and the Warriors are a team that could defy history this year. Trouble for them is, they're not the only ones.
