NFL conference championship betting trends: Fade the 49ers?

Both home teams in conference championship week are laying at least seven points, the first time that has happened since 2014. Since 1999, underdogs of at least seven points in conference championship games are 4-9 outright but 10-3 against the spread.

Home teams have gone 10-2 outright and 8-4 ATS in conference title games since 2013. However, last season, both road underdogs won the games outright.

During this postseason, the first six games went under the total. However, both Sunday divisional round games went over. As for the spread? None of the eight games thus far has seen the spread matter -- all eight winning teams covered the number.

This week, some trends point to the underdogs. Mike Vrabel's Titans are 4-0 outright this season as an underdog of at least four points (winning twice this postseason in that situation), and in his two seasons as head coach his teams are 8-1 ATS and 7-2 outright in that spot. Meanwhile, Green Bay is the fourth team to win at least 13 games and be a touchdown underdog in a conference championship game. Each of the previous three teams won the game outright(1999 Tennessee, 1998 Atlanta, 1990 New York Giants).

Here are the betting nuggets to know for this weekend's slate:

Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs (-7), Sunday at 3:05 p.m. ET

Wild-card teams in conference championship games are 1-5 ATS and outright since 2008. They are 12-19 ATS all time in the Super Bowl era (11-20 outright).

Since 2016, the under is 14-0 in playoff games involving No. 6 seeds (4-0 this year). Since 2012, the under is 23-3 in those games.

The Chiefs have won and covered seven straight games dating back to the regular season. Their last loss came in Week 10 against Tennessee at home (lost by three as 5.5-point road favorites).

Tennessee is 8-3-1 ATS in Ryan Tannehill starts this season. The over is 9-3; however, both playoff games have gone under.

Tennessee is the fifth team to win wild-card and divisional-round games as an underdog of at least four points in each. The previous four teams were 0-4 outright and 1-3 ATS in the conference title games.

Since the AFL/NFL merger, there have been 23 instances of a team pulling an upset win over an opponent in the regular season and then meeting again in the postseason as an underdog of at least seven points. Those underdogs are 4-19 outright and 6-15-2 ATS, including Houston failing to cover last week against Kansas City. Tennessee upset Kansas City in Week 10.

Since 1997, 10 No. 2 seeds have hosted conference championship games. Those teams are 3-7 outright and ATS despite being favored in eight of the 10 games.

Patrick Mahomes is 2-1 outright and ATS in home playoff games as Kansas City quarterback. In all other home playoff games since the merger, Kansas City is 0-9 ATS and 2-7 outright.

Home teams in AFC title games are 28-20-1 ATS all time, but the road team has covered each of the past two seasons.

Since 1980, nine-win teams are 3-7 ATS in conference title games (2-8 outright). The last time a nine-win team made it this far, the 2011 Giants upset San Francisco as 2.5-point underdogs.

Green Bay Packers at San Francisco 49ers (-7.5), Sunday at 6:40 p.m. ET

This is the third straight season a 13-win team has been an underdog in the conference championship game. Each of the previous two seasons, that team pulled off the upset (Rams over the Saints in 2018 season, Eagles over the Vikings in 2017). Overall, 13-win teams are 8-4 outright and ATS in conference title games as underdogs.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, Matt LaFleur is the eighth rookie coach since 1990 to reach a conference championship game and face a non-rookie head coach. The previous seven are 1-6 outright and ATS. In 2009, Jim Caldwell (Colts) and Rex Ryan (Jets) faced off as rookie coaches (not included).

This is the fourth time Aaron Rodgers has been an underdog of at least seven points in his career. His teams lost all three of those games, but they got the cover in all three.

Since 2014, San Francisco is 2-12-1 ATS as a favorite of at least six points (10-5 outright), including 1-6-1 ATS this season. Last week's playoff win was the only cover.

Last year, both No. 1 seeds lost outright in their respective conference championship games. However, since 2013, No. 1 seeds are 9-2 outright and 7-4 ATS in championship week.

Green Bay and San Francisco have met seven times in the playoffs, all since 1995. Green Bay is 4-3 outright and 4-1-2 ATS in those games. However, Rodgers is 2-6-1 ATS and 4-5 outright in his career against San Francisco.

Green Bay is 7-2 outright and ATS against teams that finished .500 or better this season.

Green Bay has only lost three times this season, but all three losses came by at least seven points, with two of the losses coming by at least 15 points.

According to the Elias Sports Bureau, San Francisco is the fifth team to reach a conference championship game after winning four or fewer games the previous season since the NFL went to a 16-game season. The previous four are 1-3 ATS.

All four playoff games this year with totals of 45 or below went under the number, and six straight playoff games in that situation have gone under.

Since 2012, this is the 10th instance of a team beating an opponent by at least 25 points in the regular season and meeting again in the playoffs. The previous nine regular-season winners are 9-0 outright in the rematch and 5-3-1 ATS. The last upset was by the Jets against Patriots in the 2010 divisional round.
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