The poll conducted by SurveyUSA of 555 "Likely Voters" shows Valadao leading his Democratic challenger, T.J. Cox, 50% to 39%. 11% of those responding are still "undecided".
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According to Jay Leve, the President of SurveyUSA, older, white voters in District 21 should propel the Incumbent back into office. The poll shows Valadao leads Cox by 32 points among white voters and by 20 points among seniors. Valadao also holds 88% of the Republican base. He leads among Independents by a whopping 31 points and by 42 points among "affluent voters".
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Leve says Cox draws even with Valadao among voters age 35 to 49 and has a 5 point advantage among Latino voters. But Leve points out that Valadao's advantage among white voters should be enough to offset the turnout by Latinos for Cox.
The economy and immigration are major issues in District 21. According to the results from the Action News Poll, among those voters who says the economy is the top issue in how they vote, Valadao leads Cox 2 to 1.
Valadao also leads Cox by 12 points among those voters who believe immigration is the most important issue.
Cox leads 3 to 1 among those voters who say education is the top issue, but only 9% of district voters named education as their top concern.
IN DEPTH: Complete Interactive Crosstabs of Action News poll
The new Action News Poll also asked about President Trump's job approval, an issue which Cox is raising in his new TV ads.
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In District 21, 48% of the voters approve of the job President Trump is doing with 43% saying they disapprove. Among those who approve of the job President Trump is doing, 87% would vote for Valadao.
This poll was conducted September 20-24, 2018.