Forecasters at the National Hurricane Center are urging residents of the eastern Gulf Coast, particularly Floridians, to monitor the forecast closely because there could be an opening for the storm to reach the US next week.
Soon-to-be Sara is another example of an Atlantic hurricane season that hasn't played by the rules. Tropical activity should be winding down in November, but this will be the third named storm this month instead thanks to exceptionally warm water wrought by climate change.
For now, it is Tropical Depression Nineteen with 35 mph maximum sustained winds and is located 90 miles east of the Honduras/Nicaragua border in the Caribbean Sea, according to the NHC.
The storm will strengthen as it meanders and nearly stalls over the very warm water of the western Caribbean Sea - the same body of water that fueled Hurricane Rafael - and could near-hurricane strength while near the northern coast of Honduras over the weekend.
Hurricane and tropical storm alerts have been issued for parts of Honduras and Nicaragua with the storm's wind and rain expected to arrive as soon as Thursday evening and ramp up Friday.
The storm will bring "life-threatening" flooding rainfall up to 30 inches to Honduras and double-digit rainfall totals to other parts of Central America, the NHC warned. That could mean "widespread areas of life-threatening and potentially catastrophic flash flooding and mudslides," the hurricane center warned Thursday.
It will then threaten Belize and the Yucatán Peninsula with serious storm surge and damaging winds by early next week, so residents should prepare their hurricane plans.
The potential impacts on the eastern Gulf of Mexico, including Florida, the Florida Keys, and Cuba, remain uncertain, and those in these areas should closely monitor forecasts because the scenarios diverge drastically beyond Central America.
The forecast beyond Central America will hinge on how close the system gets to the coast over the next few days. The official forecast from the hurricane center has the system hugging the coast of Honduras and barely moving inland over the weekend, but this could change.
US threat?
There are a few potential scenarios on the table for how formidable the storm could be or whether it could reach the US next week.
It could make landfall in Honduras or Nicaragua this weekend and deteriorate while over land, cut off from the warm water fueling it. This scenario would bring strong winds and a deluge to Central America but could keep the storm away from the US.
A storm that remains very close to the coast of Central America but doesn't make landfall would still unleash heavy rainfall there and could eventually emerge in the southern Gulf of Mexico next week. It would likely emerge as a weaker storm, which could lessen the blow if it were to reach the US.
But if the system stays just a bit farther off the coast and over tremendously warm water, it could strengthen considerably - and possibly rapidly intensify - while it stalls.
Sea surface temperatures in the Caribbean are currently their second-warmest on record - just behind 2023's record-breaking heat. They're warmer than they should be at the peak of hurricane season and could continue to produce unusually strong storms. Warmer bodies of water are fueling stronger storms and more rapid intensification as the world warms due to fossil fuel pollution.
It could then make a gradual turn to the northwest, head for Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula or Cuba and potentially reach the eastern Gulf of Mexico.
The Gulf is record warm for this time of year and likewise could boost or sustain any system that reaches it.
This scenario would slam parts of Honduras, Nicaragua and surrounding areas with torrential, flooding rainfall and damaging winds for days before the system moves away early next week. Mexico's Yucatán Peninsula or Cuba could be next in line for similar impacts, depending on how strong the system becomes and how sharp a turn it makes.
This scenario is the most troubling for the US. A stronger system in the Gulf of Mexico could make a run at Florida next week.
Five hurricanes have slammed into the US Gulf Coast this year.
If this system were to make landfall in the US, it could challenge the latest landfalling hurricane on record. The current record rests with Hurricane Kate, which made landfall as a Category 2 storm in Florida on November 21, 1985.
Hurricane season officially comes to an end on November 30, but named storms have formed in December in the past.
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