BPI: Analyzing a potential top-16 playoff system

ESPN's Chris Broussard recently reported about the growing support among NBA executives for restructuring the NBA playoffs to take the top 16 teams in terms of wins, regardless of conference.

From the execs' perspective, the argument for this shift is clear: The conferences are not balanced competitively, so good teams will be left out of the playoffs while less-worthy teams make it. From the fan's perspective, a top-16 system would mean more competitive and high-level series throughout the playoffs.

Right now, three sub-.500 Eastern Conference teams are in position to make the playoffs. Two teams that are above .500 in the Western Conference would not make the playoffs if the season ended today. But the win totals don't tell the whole story in terms of competitive balance.

Eight of the top 10 in ESPN's Basketball Power Index are in the Western Conference, which means in every round of this year's playoffs, the Western Conference will pit two of the top 10 teams against each other. In the East, that could happen only in the conference finals -- and there is only a 33 percent chance of that actually happening.

Taking the top 16 teams and seeding them according to win totals takes care of sub-.500 unfairness and provides fairer seeding. Changing the playoff system would change not only who gets in and who plays whom, but also the odds for each team to advance to the NBA Finals and become champion.

Right now, if the NBA switched to the top 16, the Miami Heat, Brooklyn Nets, Charlotte Hornets and Boston Celtics (all battling for the final two spots in the East) would be left out, and the Phoenix Suns and New Orleans Pelicans would be make the playoffs.

The No. 1 seed Golden State Warriors, instead of facing the Oklahoma City Thunder (No. 6 in BPI) in the first round, would face the Suns (No. 15 in BPI). Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers would fall from the second seed in the East (and a likely first-round matchup with the Miami Heat, No. 20 in BPI) to seventh in the top-16 playoffs (and a likely first-round matchup with the Dallas Mavericks, No. 8 in BPI).

These changes have big implications for who is likely to make the Finals. Under the current conference system, four teams have a 20 percent or better chance of making the NBA Finals -- the Warriors, Spurs, Hawks and Cavaliers.

Meanwhile, based on 10,000 simulations of the top-16 system, the Warriors' odds of making the finals go from 50 percent to 57 percent, and only the Spurs (36 percent) and Clippers (26 percent) have more than a 20 percent chance of getting to the Finals. The path for the top teams in the West would become easier, and the path for the top of the East would become much harder. The Hawks, for example, would probably be the biggest losers in a switch to a top-16 system. They would see their odds of making the Finals drop from 20 percent in the conference system to 10 percent, and their odds of getting out of the first round would drop from 80 percent to 69 percent.

The top-16 system does more than boost the West and burden the East, though. It also would make it much more likely that the final two rounds of the playoffs -- the semifinals (currently the conference championship round) and the NBA Finals -- would be played by the best teams in the league. Under the conference system, there is a 66 percent chance that a team outside the top 10 in BPI will be competing in the Eastern Conference finals and a 30 percent chance that a team outside the top 10 will be in the NBA Finals.

In a top-16 world, there is only a 10 percent chance for a non-top 10 team to reach the semis, and a 1 percent chance for a non-top 10 team to play in the Finals. Since the teams in the semifinals and Finals would be far more likely to be the top teams in the league, fans would be much more likely to see a highly competitive series in those rounds.

This is true, in fact, for each round. Based on the simulation of both structures, the average BPI of teams competing is higher in each round in a top-16 system than in the conference system. Some teams in the East may not like the prospect of not being able to tell season-ticket holders that they had a playoff season, but the top-16 system gives fans more competitive basketball in each round of the playoffs.

BPI notes

Most likely playoff matchups in the West: Thunder-Warriors (88 percent), Mavericks-Grizzlies (43 percent), Spurs-Clippers (33 percent) and Blazers-Rockets (27 percent)

Most likely playoff matchups in the East: Cavaliers-Heat (55 percent), Hawks-Nets (35 percent), Bulls-Wizards (64 percent) and Raptors-Wizards (61 percent)

Odds for the eighth spot in the East: Nets (35 percent), Celtics (27 percent), Pacers (7 percent), Heat (21 percent) and Hornets (11 percent)

Lakers' odds of keeping their first-round (top five-protected) draft pick: 79 percent

The 76ers will get the Thunder's first-round pick this year if it falls outside the top 18 picks. There is a 60 percent chance the Sixers will get that pick this season.

Note: The NBA Basketball Power Index (BPI) is a measure of team strength developed by the ESPN Analytics team. BPI is meant to be the best predictor of a team's performance going forward for the rest of the season. BPI represents how many points above or below average a team is. BPI accounts for game-by-game efficiencies, strength of schedule, pace, number of days' rest, game location and preseason expectations. Ratings will be updated in this space weekly.