2026 Pac-12 college football preview, predictions, top transfers and more

With a few years of exceptions, Oregon State and Washington State have been members of the Pac-12 -- or its forebears, the Pac-10, Pac-8, Athletic Association of Western Universities and Pacific Coast Conference -- for 110 years. They once shared the conference with Washington and Oregon, Cal and Stanford, USC and UCLA, Montana and Idaho, Arizona and Arizona State and Colorado and Utah. And now, two years after they were abandoned in the last round of conference realignment and forced to set up a scheduling arrangement with the Mountain West and, in 2025, play each other twice, they've found some new bandmates.

In 2026, the new-look Pac-12 begins play with six new teams, a fun flex-week idea and the best projected average SP+ rating of any conference in the Group of 6. It isn't a power conference, but it should be the best of the rest. The winners of 13 of the last 14 Mountain West titles (Boise State, San Diego State, Fresno State and Utah State) have joined OSU and Wazzu, along with Colorado State and a Sun Belt import, Texas State. Boise State is the projected favorite -- just as the Broncos always were in the MWC -- but no one is starting out miles behind. New coaches and new transfers could create a fun race in this new (and old) conference. Let's preview the Pac-12! It's back!

2025 recap

I still think that, after the Cougars and Beavers split their home-and-home series, they should have met in a "Pac-12 championship game" on a neutral site. Someone should have gotten to hang a banner -- it's not their fault everyone else left.

SDSU and Boise State were part of last year's four-way tie atop the MWC -- BSU beat UNLV for its seventh MWC title in 15 years -- while Fresno State saw solid success in Matt Entz's first season, Utah State got to .500 despite no continuity whatsoever, Texas State lost a series of heartbreakers (that might have allowed the Bobcats to keep GJ Kinne and Brad Jackson for a bit longer) and Colorado State disappointed again. The Rams have done a lot of that lately.

Continuity table

The continuity table looks at each team's returning production levels (offense, defense and overall), the number of 2025 FBS starts from both returning and incoming players and the approximate number of redshirt freshmen on the roster heading into 2026. (Why "approximate"? Because schools sometimes make it very difficult to ascertain who redshirted and who didn't.) Continuity is an increasingly difficult art in roster management, but some teams pull it off better than others.

Last year's two best teams have the best continuity this year, which probably gives you a spoiler regarding this year's projected top two. But SDSU's continuity is a little odd: Most of a bad offense returns, while very little of a great defense does. You can spin that in two very different ways.

Maybe the most notable part of this continuity table? Four teams rank in the top half of the nation in returning production, and no one ranks lower than 109th. That's a mini-miracle for a G6 conference.

2026 projections

With a great recent history and solid, balanced continuity, BSU is far and away the most proven entity in this new conference. Four teams are within a touchdown of second, however, and even CSU has a little bit of hope if the "new coach brings tons of his former players with him" formula works out.

No single team in FBS is a bigger conference favorite than BSU, but the second spot in the title game is very much up for grabs.

Five best games of 2026

Here are the five conference games that feature (a) the highest combined SP+ ratings for both teams and (b) a projected scoring margin under eight points.

Oct. 3: Texas State at San Diego State and Fresno State at Washington State. The teams projected second through fifth pair off in the opening weekend of conference play. Very convenient!

Oct. 10: Boise State at Fresno State. BSU is a projected single-digit favorite in only two conference games, and this is the closest one on the docket. The Broncos have actually lost three straight to the Bulldogs and have only won once in Fresno in 11 years (albeit in only three games).

Oct. 17: Fresno State at San Diego State. With Wazzu, BSU and SDSU to start conference play, we'll know everything we need to know about Fresno State very quickly.

Oct. 31: Washington State at San Diego State. Which of these two defense-oriented teams is better at scoring points this season? Or maybe, which team has maintained its defensive form despite heavy turnover?

My five favorite transfers

QB Caden Pinnick, Washington State. The 6-foot Pinnick was one of the most prolific freshmen in the country last season, throwing for 3,206 yards, rushing for 437 more and producing 35 total TDs at UC Davis. Grabbing a QB this prolific, and this young, in the portal is an absolute steal.

CB JeRico Washington Jr., Boise State. BSU lost last year's top two cornerbacks; it was basically the only hole Spencer Danielson had to fill, but it was a vital one, and he grabbed one of the most proven mid-major corners in the portal. Washington broke up 13 passes, made 3.5 tackles for loss and allowed just a 39.0 QBR as a key piece in Kennesaw State's Conference USA title run last season. He was only a sophomore, too.

ILB Cameron Cooper, SDSU. The Aztecs' defense got hit hard by attrition, but Sean Lewis procured a sure tackling-machine: Cooper recorded 81 tackles with 14 TFLs, five sacks and five pass breakups on an excellent Western Colorado (D-II) team last year.

DT Phillip Bradford, Texas State. I love guys who combine size with productivity, and few did it better than Bradford: He's listed at 6-foot-6, 308 pounds, and he made 15.5 TFLs with 5.5 sacks at McNeese last season.

OL Quinton Harris, Colorado State. New head coach Jim Mora brought a good number of players with him from UConn, but in Harris he also grabbed a lineman with great size (6-foot-8, 315 pounds) who was good enough to start four games for a power conference team (TCU) and allowed zero sacks in 407 snaps.

Conference title (and, therefore, CFP) contenders

Boise State Broncos

• Head coach: Spencer Danielson (fourth year, 24-8 overall)


• 2026 projection: 38th in SP+, 8.7 average wins (5.4 in the Pac-12)

Everyone's stats are better in wins and losses. Obviously. But there was a Very Good Boise State and a Very Bad Boise State last season, and it created one of the largest disparities you'll ever see.

Average score in 9 Boise State wins: BSU 42.2, opponent 21.1 (+21.1)

Average score in 5 Boise State losses: Opponent 29.4, BSU 7.6 (-21.8)

Danielson's Broncos played in one game decided by single digits all season -- a wild 25-24 comeback win over Utah State led by backup quarterback Max Cutforth -- and otherwise games were seemingly decided by whether or not BSU's offense showed up. (Or maybe the better way to look at it is whether BSU's opponent could play defense.) Losing five games after you entered the season as the de facto favorite for another CFP bid is disappointing, but the Broncos still looked like they were supposed to look most of the time and still won one last Mountain West title. That's a pretty good disappointment.

If the guys out wide come through in 2026, on both sides of the ball, the Broncos will be good again. Last year's top four receivers are gone, as are four of the top five defensive backs. Otherwise the continuity is as good as anyone's in this conference. Quarterback Maddux Madsen is back, as are running backs Dylan Riley and Sire Gaines (combined: 2,157 yards from scrimmage last season) and five of the eight linemen who started games in 2025. Despite the run game remaining solid following the loss of star Ashton Jeanty, Madsen struggled with mistakes and inefficiency (and, for a few weeks, injuries), and now he'll have to rebound with a young receiving corps that added only one transfer (Southern's Darren Morris). Senior slot man Ben Ford is solid, but if Madsen has a big year it will likely be because of players like sophomore Quinton Brown and maybe star freshman like spring stars Rasean Jones or Terrious Favors.

The defense mostly did its part last season; the big plays were bigger than preferable, but BSU forced the second-longest third downs in the nation on average and held opponents to a 33.7% third-down conversion rate (23rd). Safety Ty Benefield and corners Jeremiah Earby and A'Marion McCoy were big reasons for that success, and all are gone, but corner JeRico Washington Jr. (Kennesaw State) should immediately become one of the conference's best, and nickel Jaden Mickey and corner Sherrod Smith are disruptive.

If the secondary doesn't regress much, the front six should take things from there. The return of ends Jayden Virgin-Morgan and Max Stege (combined: 19 TFLs, 22 run stops, 6.5 sacks) is a boon, and I'm excited about returning sophomores Lopez Sanusi (tackle) and Roman Caywood (end). If Boise State can pass, everything else should take shape nicely.

A couple of breaks away from a run

San Diego State Aztecs

• Head coach: Sean Lewis (third year, 12-13 overall)


• 2026 projection: 71st in SP+, 7.1 average wins (4.1 in the Pac-12)

In 2025, San Diego State arrested an alarming slide, and then some. The Aztecs had seen both their win total and SP+ ranking fall for three consecutive years and had faceplanted to 3-9 and 119th in Sean Lewis' first season. I loved Lewis' work at Kent State and loved SDSU's hire of him, but the debut was alarming.

Lewis assuaged concerns in Year 2. His offense still wasn't particularly good -- it was the same run-run-pass-punt approach we got used to when Brady Hoke was in charge -- but they ran and punted well enough to give their defense good field position. The defense took it from there. SDSU ranked fifth in both points allowed per drive and yards allowed per play, playing well against the run and dominating the pass.

Perhaps predictably, the awesome defense got hit hard by attrition while the awful offense was left mostly alone. SDSU returns nine of the 13 offensive players who saw 200-plus snaps (though three of the departures were on the line) but only six of the 17 who did so on defense. Four defensive starters left for power conference rosters, as did coordinator Rob Aurich and star punter Hunter Green.

The offense will likely have to improve to offset defensive regression, but Lewis did sign quite a few intriguing transfers for both sides of the ball. Incoming linebackers Cameron Cooper (Western Colorado) and Sione Hala (Weber State) combined for 22 TFLs and 10 passes defended in D-II and FCS, respectively, and Lewis grabbed Ohio's starting nickel Jalen Thomeson in addition to a batch of five Big Sky cornerbacks led by all-conference senior Carsten Mamaril (Portland State). I'm not sure if the portal delivered enough pass rushing, but SDSU should have everything else.

With quarterback Jayden Denegal and running backs Lucky Sutton and Christian Washington (combined: 1,680 yards, 14 TDs) returning, I doubt the identity of the offense changes all that much. Three line starters are gone, but the Aztecs do return four big seniors and added both a couple of smaller-school veterans and an Indiana transfer (tackle Evan Lawrence).

Defense and special teams were so good last year that SDSU ranked 43rd overall in SP+ with minimal offense. I'm not sure they'll hit those heights again, but it would be a surprise if the Aztecs weren't involved in the conference race.

Fresno State Bulldogs

• Head coach: Matt Entz (second year, 9-4 overall)


• 2026 projection: 78th in SP+, 6.9 average wins (3.7 in the Pac-12)

Fresno State was Boise State-like in its "either worked or it didn't" vibe last season. Entz's first Bulldogs team tried to establish the run and slow the tempo on early downs, and on defense they overcommitted against the run on standard downs and overcommitted against the pass on passing downs. They forced opponents to play their game, and when it worked, it really worked. And sometimes it didn't.

Average score in 9 Fresno State wins: FS 32.2, opponent 12.6 (+19.6)

Average score in 4 Fresno State losses: Opponent 32.8, FS 11.3 (-21.5)

Fresno State games were pretty much guaranteed to have bad passing -- both for and against the Bulldogs. That running backs Bryson Donelson and Rayshon Luke (combined: 1,637 yards from scrimmage, 13 TDs) both return, along with three starting linemen, is great news. That the Bulldogs will have a new starting QB might not be bad. Either transfer Khristian Martin (Maryland) or returning junior Jayden Mandal will likely start and will have an experienced set of receivers back, led by Josiah Freeman. Entz didn't seek loads of portal help, but he'll have to hope that a less experienced pass catcher like Jahlil McClain or Harold Duvall develops.

The defense is legitimately exciting. It leaped from 77th to 37th in Nick Benedetto's first season as coordinator, and he returns nine of the 18 defenders with 200-plus snaps. Star corners Al'zillion Hamilton and Jakari Embry are gone, but the trio of ends Jahzon Jacks and Merhauti Xepera and tackle Deijon Laffitte is exciting - and could get help from transfer end Dylan Hampsten (13 TFLs and eight sacks at Sacramento State) - and sophomore linebacker Tytus Khajavi is a star. Nickel Simeon Harris is a strong play-maker, and if secondary transfers Taylor Powell (Northern Illinois) and Croix Stewart (UCLA) click, the pass defense should remain excellent.

Entz is attempting to establish a North Dakota State-like program out West, and with the physical rushing and strong defense, he got further in establishing that identity than I expected in his first year. The Bulldogs will contend if they have a quarterback. (But I'm not entirely sure they do.)

Washington State Cougars

• Head coach: Kirby Moore (first year)


• 2026 projection: 85th in SP+, 5.1 average wins (3.2 in the Pac-12)

Jim Sweeney, Jim Walden, Mike Price and Mike Leach stayed for a combined 39 years. Jackie Sherrill, Warren Powers and Dennis Erickson stayed a combined four. Washington State fans are historically used to both long tenures and almost nonexistent ones, but the 2020s have been particularly transient.

Wazzu is on its fourth head coach in six seasons this fall. Even with the lack of continuity -- and obviously the turmoil that came with the Pac-12's near-death -- the Cougars have been shockingly steady on the field: They've ranked between 47th and 68th in SP+, and won between five and eight games, for five straight years. And while poor returning production figures are driving their projected fall to 85th, I loved Kirby Moore's first transfer haul.

If either sophomore transfer Caden Pinnick (UC Davis) or a returnee like sophomore Julian Dugger or redshirt freshman Owen Eshelman can thrive at quarterback -- admittedly not a guarantee -- then a lot of offensive pieces fall into place. Leading rusher Kirby Vorhees returns and will be pushed by exciting backups Leo Pulalasi and Maxwell Woods and transfer Beau Phillips (Central Washington); I'm assuming good things from a line that returns two starters, plus three more guys who started at least twice, and adds a part time starter from Washington (tackle Maximus McCree). The receiving corps is unproven outside of slot man Tony Freeman, but Moore signed five transfer pass-catchers, including tight end Jack Pedersen (UCLA), former blue-chipper Tank Hawkins (Florida) and an FCS freshman star in Jordan Dees (West Georgia).

Defense carried the Cougars last season, but it's completely starting over: All 17 players who saw over 200 snaps are gone, so new coordinator Trent Bray, most recently Oregon State's head coach, will lean heavily on both youngsters and a huge portal haul. That includes a couple of exciting former power-conference backups in end Linus Zunk (Vanderbilt) and safety Jshawn Frausto-Ramos (Arizona/Stanford), mid-major adds like end Paul Hutson III (Marshall) and corner Jaylen Thomas (San Jose State) and a number of smaller-school stars. My favorites: end Matyus McLain (Idaho), tackle Balaam Miller (Saint Francis) and safety Jeremiah Bernard (Cal Poly). I like the potential here, but obviously it's scary needing so many newcomers to immediately thrive.

Texas State Bobcats

• Head coach: G.J. Kinne (fourth year, 23-16 overall)


• 2026 projection: 88th in SP+, 5.8 average wins (3.2 in the Pac-12)

There's a chance that short-term setbacks create longer-term successes for Texas State. After back-to-back 8-5 seasons in 2023-24, GJ Kinne's name had begun to show up on more and more power-conference job lists, and he uncovered his latest excellent quarterback last fall in Brad Jackson. When the Bobcats were good in 2025, they were brilliant, beating Eastern Michigan by 25, Southern Miss by 27 and Rice by 31 and upsetting UTSA in the Alamodome. (That's easier said than done.)

But they gave up two touchdowns in the final 80 seconds to lose to Arkansas State. The next week, they watched a 28-3 lead turn into an overtime loss at home against Troy. Then they gave up two late scores and lost to Marshall in double overtime. Then they turned the tables, nearly overcoming a 42-20 deficit against Louisiana but failing to make one last stop in a three-point loss. Four gut-wrenching losses in a five-game span doomed what could have been a division title-level season. They rallied to win their last four and finish 7-6, but schools were looking elsewhere for their head coach, and Kinne stayed in town. So did Jackson and his two favorite targets, Beau Sparks and Chris Dawn Jr. Even with pretty heavy turnover at running back, this is an exciting development, as Johnson really was fantastic last year. He threw for 3,224 yards, rushed for 890 more (not including sacks) and posted the fourth-best Total QBR of any Group of Six QB last season - and the best of any returnee.

Both lines got hit pretty hard by attrition, and success there will likely come down to the transfers Kinne landed. Three power conference linemen join two returning starters on offense, and Kinne loaded up on the defensive front, adding four JUCOs and six transfers, including three big tackles in Tae Woody (ULM), Chancellor Owens (Arizona) and my favorite, Phillip Bradford (McNeese), who made 15.5 TFLs at 308 pounds last season. The secondary has some holes I'm not sure the portal filled, but I'm optimistic about the Bobcats' line play improving, especially on D. Good lines, a good skill corps and a dynamite quarterback would take Texas State a long way.

Oregon State Beavers

• Head coach: JaMarcus Shephard (first year)


• 2026 projection: 93rd in SP+, 5.1 average wins (3.1 in the Pac-12)

The Oregon State job is one of extremes. In the last 31 seasons, from 1995-2025, the Beavers have either won or lost nine-plus games 13 times -- nearly half the time! They were 2-9 in 1996 and 11-1 four years later. They were 9-4 in 2008, then 3-9 in 2011 then 9-4 again in 2012. They were 2-10 in 2018, then 10-3 in 2022, then 2-10 in 2025.

JaMarcus Shephard's first impression in Corvallis was pretty extreme, too. The dude's passionate, and it's not hard to envision him putting together a team of guys who really want to play for him. In 2026, the main issue might simply be how many guys he needed to find. Returnees did combine for 96 total starts last season, which honestly isn't an awful total these days -- it's the equivalent of about eight returning starters -- but he didn't exactly inherit many known difference-makers, especially on offense. Quarterback Maalik Murphy is decent, sophomore running back Cornell Hatcher Jr. was good in a small sample, and the right side of the line is solid with guard Tyler Voltin and tackle Josiah Timoteo. But major improvement in the points department will require massive help from transfers; I enjoy that Shephard dipped into both the "unproven former blue-chippers" well with sophomore receivers Aaron Butler (Texas) and Aeryn Hampton (Bama) and FCS big-play guys like Adonis McDaniel (Mercer) and my favorite, Xayvion Noland (UTRGV). Noland is listed at 5-foot-6 and 165 pounds and averaged 22.5 yards per catch last year.

The defense seems closer to a breakthrough. Linebacker Aiden Sullivan is excellent, and a run front of edge Takari Hickle and big tackles Tygee Hill and Jacob Schuster (6-foot-2, 360 pounds) should hold up. The secondary got thinned out quite a bit but returns active guys like nickel Sailasa Vadrawale III and corner Trey Glasper. Shephard didn't grab as many transfers for veteran defensive coordinator Mike MacIntyre, but there's good size everywhere you look.

It feels like both nine wins and nine losses are on the table with a schedule that features eight projected one-score games. A little bit of offensive improvement might go a long way.

Just looking for a path to 6-6

Utah State Aggies

• Head coach: Bronco Mendenhall (second year, 6-7 overall)


• 2026 projection: 97th in SP+, 4.5 average wins (2.7 in the Pac-12)

By Bronco Mendenhall's standards, this year's Utah State team has spectacular continuity. Since he returned to coaching, he engineered improvement at New Mexico (124th in returning production in 2024) and Utah State (133rd in 2025). USU ranks 89th this year -- that must feel downright exciting.

With a decent QB, the Aggies could be candidates to significantly overachieve against projections. Veteran offensive coordinator Robert Anae -- reuniting with Mendenhall after the two worked together at Virginia -- will be leaning on the returning McCae Hillstead. The junior was decent in four starts for Utah State as a true freshman in 2023, and he's back after a stint at BYU. Mendenhall also signed six skill-corps transfers, and players like slot man Javon Robinson and Virginia transfer Eli Wood will need to make plays in addition to returning backs Javen Jacobs and Noah White. The line returns four big veterans and adds four transfers as well.

The defense improved from terrible to merely poor last season but could jump to decent this time around. Mendenhall clearly wasn't happy with last year's depth, and despite returning eight of the 16 players with 200-plus snaps -- including run-stuffing end Carson Tujague, linebackers Bronson Olevao Jr. and Chris Joe and safety Brevin Hamblin -- he added 19 transfers from power conferences and small schools alike. Tackle Ta'Avili Tuitama (New Mexico State), linebackers Harrison Taggart (Cal), Asher Cunningham (Elon) and Jordan Pendleton (St. Thomas) and corners Markie Grant (Wyoming) and Antonio Bluiett (North Dakota) should fit in quickly.

I like this team's potential, but the schedule could hold the Aggies back: In the first half of the season alone, they'll play at Washington, Utah and Boise State while hosting potential tossup games against Troy and Washington State. Survive that with confidence intact, and you might establish a rhythm. But September probably won't be much fun.

Colorado State Rams

• Head coach: Jim Mora (first year)


• 2026 projection: 100th in SP+, 4.7 average wins (2.5 in the Pac-12)

Jim Mora needed two years to turn UConn into something excellent. Can he speed up that timeline at Colorado State if he brings part of his UConn roster with him?

That CSU was able to pull Mora back West was a reminder of the potential this job forever has. But the Rams certainly haven't shown much of that potential of late, enjoying just one winning season in eight years.

With a near-total roster reset on his hands following last year's 2-10 collapse, Mora's done a nice job of creating competition throughout most of the roster. At quarterback, he has Hauss Hejny (Oklahoma State/TCU) vs. redshirt freshman Ksaan Farrar (UConn). At running back, it's Durell Robinson (Auburn) vs. Mel Brown (UConn) vs. Oliver Lundberg Coleman (UConn). At receiver, returnees Tommy Maher and Lavon Brown will battle five newcomers, while four transfer TEs will continue jockeying for position. The line might turn out to be a little too thin, but competition should produce sharpness for the rest of the offense. Hejny is an exciting dual-threat, and if Farrar can beat him out, that says great things about his ceiling.

The defense is more experienced overall: Ten returnees played at least 125 snaps, and sixth-year senior end Mukendi Wa-Kalonji is back after missing most of 2025. But newcomers will still be needed to spice things up. Mora added two UConn starters (tackle Stephon Wright and star linebacker Oumar Diomande) and grabbed some active small-schoolers in ends Caleb Otlewski (Montana) and Khamani Potts (Grand Valley State), corner Richard Mosley III (Stonehill) and safety TreShawn Moore (West Georgia). I would expect improvement, but the bar's still pretty low for a defense that hasn't ranked in the SP+ top 75 since 2017.

One big anniversary

Twenty years ago, Boise State won one of the best bowl games ever. We talk a lot these days about how mid-major programs just can't compete with the power programs, and while the financial playing field just keeps getting tilted more and more by the day, Boise State's 2006 season should remind us that miracles happen and manifest destiny is amazing.

Just a year after getting throttled by Georgia, the Broncos blew out Oregon State -- a team that would beat No. 3 USC a few weeks later -- on the way to a 12-0 start, then won a Fiesta Bowl for the ages. They built and lost a big lead, forced overtime with one of the most famous trick plays ever, then won in overtime with two more.

It was every bit as glorious as you remember.

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