Windhorst: Six storylines already shaping the NBA offseason

With the New York Knicks claiming their first championship in 53 years, the party continues in the city and the NBA offseason has officially arrived.

Unofficially, business has been open for months, and with the NBA draft just days away, talks are intensifying across the league.

Here are the biggest storylines already shaping the summer transaction window:

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Latest intel on a Giannis trade

Lakers "phantom" cap room

No. 1 pick buzz for the Wizards

OKC second-apron concerns?

Expansion updates

Aspiration and Kawhi

What's the holdup with this Giannis trade?

What in the world is taking so long? The Milwaukee Bucks and the Miami Heat have been in talks for months. Giannis Antetokounmpo has for some time been open to signing a contract extension in Miami, which has furthered the Heat's desire to find a pathway to a trade.

Here's the issue: The Bucks seem to not be in love with the Heat's offer(s) and continue to discuss trade packages with other teams, team sources say. That said, Miami has been able to improve what it can offer since the trade deadline and can send a package headlined by the No. 13 pick in next week's draft plus various rotation players, namely Wisconsin native Tyler Herro, and prospects.

In the end, the Bucks might have to take it if they are resigned to trading their franchise icon. But they also know there's no bonus for speed; they're well aware this move could define the next decade in Milwaukee.

TheBoston Celticsare also on Antetokounmpo's list. He'd be willing to extend his contract if he were traded there too, league sources say. The Celtics typically don't get involved in situations in which they have to be involved with player agents alongside the teams.

Antetokounmpo and his representation have definitely tried to have a seat at the table during this process -- a fact that makes the Celtics uncomfortable.

The Celtics keep things quiet. Their big moves, from the then-stunning hiring of Brad Stevens 13 years ago to the Jrue Holiday trade last summer, typically don't leak. They did have some player/team involvement when they made the deal to get Kristaps Porzingis in 2023, so it's not impossible, but that was an outlier.

There are two other stumbling blocks for a Celtics deal:

1. It would potentially require the team to break up the successful duo of Jaylen Brownand Jayson Tatum. Regardless of how quiet a team keeps its talks, there's always fallout with the players involved in them.

2. It would require the Celtics to completely overhaul how they play.

One other issue to keep in mind. The Bucks, if they ultimately make an Antetokounmpo move, might need to involve a third or fourth team to either flip players or asset(s) they acquire or to offload another of their player(s) who could be in the deal.

All of this is painstaking and prone to falling apart. That's unsatisfying for those anxious for action, and likely to Antetokounmpo himself, but it's reality.

What's the latest thinking inside the Lakers?

TheLos Angeles Lakershave the possibility of having $50ish million in salary cap space. Exciting, right? But the "possibility" part is important.

To get that amount of space, they'll likely have to lose 32 points, 10 rebounds and eight assists a night. Those are the combined per-game averages for LeBron James and Rui Hachimura, who would have to be off the roster in order to create the room.

This cap figure doesn't even include unrestricted free agent Austin Reaves. The Lakers are going to have to fend off other suitors for Reaves, but this $50 million cap projection already prices in his $21 million cap hold, which will sit on their books even though he can and will sign for significantly more.

Keeping Reaves is a high priority for the Lakers, but his re-signing doesn't hit the mandate of improving the squad. Which means to materially improve, the Lakers will have to replace the James/Hachimura production AND then add to it with that same block of cap space.

That is a real challenge for the Lakers' front office, especially because they have no player in their rotation from their past four drafts who is ready for a larger role. This is why rival teams look at the Lakers as having "phantom" cap space.

There's an argument to make that their best course of action might be to just re-sign their players, hopefully to deals that are short and manageable, and hope for better health for Luka Doncic down the stretch of the season.

The Lakers do badly need a high-level starting center. The two best ones on the free agent market this summer, Jalen Duren(Detroit Pistons) and Walker Kessler(Utah Jazz), are restricted free agents, and their teams have indicated they want to keep them.

Yes, the Lakers could work out a sign-and-trade or look to acquire a different starting center via trade -- for example, there's a world in which theOklahoma City Thundermight have to consider moving Isaiah Hartenstein,which is discussed below -- but this would cost them cap space AND assets to pay.

The Lakers could try to work with Kessler -- a defensive specialist with excellent size who has been far apart from the Jazz in contract talks since last summer -- to try to stress the Jazz with an offer sheet. But that's a dangerous game.

An offer sheet can't be signed until July 6, and then the Jazz will have 48 hours to decide whether to match. That period of uncertainty is often untenable when free agency moves so fast, which is why offer sheets have basically gone the way of the dinosaur.

And now we get to James, who is coming off an excellent season despite being 41. He could certainly opt for free agency, and teams such as theGolden State Warriors and Cleveland Cavalierswould have interest. Both are tied up on their books and neither can offer James a competitive salary, however.

If James remains with the Lakers, they'll need to come to a number that significantly reduces his salary, which was over $50 million last season, and still leaves space to add a quality player. James' willingness to lower his salary could depend on what the Lakers are able to deliver with the savings.

But many rival teams believe this is the best pathway forward for both the Lakers and James and, in the end, both will get there even if there are some bruises from the process.

To be clear: The Lakers aren't in bad shape. They play in Los Angeles, are coming off a 53-win season, have Doncic in his prime and have deep-pocketed new owners.

But any sort of roster makeover that legitimately shakes up the balance of power in the West is going to be harder than it might appear -- due to both how competitive the West is and the phantom cap space the team currently holds.

The Wizards' big choice: AJ Dybantsa or Darryn Peterson?

TheWashington Wizards, owners of the No. 1 pick in next week's draft, are in the middle of deep due diligence with top draft prospects, bringingAJ Dybantsa and Darryn Petersoninto D.C. for visits last week.
Dybantsa, incidentally, then spent the weekend in Salt Lake City, where the Jazz own the No. 2 pick, and Peterson has decided he won't meet with any other teams besides the Wizards, ESPN's Shams Charania and Jeremy Woo reported. During the draft combine in Chicago last month, Peterson told reporters he was surprised when his initial meeting with the Wizards focused more on him as a person rather than him as a basketball player.

Washington has been focused on the character of players it brings in while building its roster, a trait franchise leaders Michael Winger and Will Dawkins brought with them from the culture-obsessed Oklahoma City Thunder. The Wizards are also already known for playing strategy games when it comes to high draft picks in recent years, whether it's offering draft promises in return for players shutting down workouts or putting out smokescreens.

With the No. 1 pick, Washington holds all the cards. Rival teams expect the Wizards to hold those cards close, perhaps up until they are on the clock as they try to draw out a possible godfather offer.

Second-apron concerns in OKC?

After years of benefiting from players on rookie-scale contracts, theOklahoma City Thunderare about to get very expensive.

With huge contract extensions kicking in for Chet Holmgren and Jalen Williams, OKC in one offseason is about to go from being under the luxury tax all the way into the second apron. Naturally, the Thunder have for years been preparing for this and have built team options into the contracts forIsaiah Hartenstein, Lu Dort andKenrich Williamsfor next season, totaling $53 million.

They are on the hook for none of them and could shave all of it off the payroll if they wanted. But Hartenstein and Dort are long-term starters and valuable contributors.

The Thunder have the option of declining those options and renegotiating new deals, potentially reducing their payroll while adding more guaranteed money for the players. Dort has done his own prep for this, hiring Rich Paul as his agent midway through last season.

It is possible the Thunder, who have young players on cheaper contracts who could take on bigger roles, will end up losing a player or two to the apron gods.

It is also possible they will cut some corners, such as trading away one of their two first-round picks in this year's draft either to move up or for a future selection.

And though it seems unlikely that they'll allow Hartenstein to go anywhere, they're sure to get some offers.

In his end-of-season news conference, general manager Sam Presti gave no hint at his plans but repeated a position he has stated numerous times: that the Thunder have prepared themselves to spend.

"We've had ample time to prepare for this scenario," Presti said. "When we repositioned, replenished and rebuilt the team, we were well aware of what it would take if we were ever fortunate enough to fall into a perennial contender in Oklahoma City again."

New teams -- finally -- in Seattle and Las Vegas?

At the July board of governors meeting, there might finally be a decision to move forward with expansion in both Las Vegas and Seattle.

The league will likely take some time to put forth a timetable and set up a process to determine a bidding process for new ownership, but both could come in the near future.

Among the most interesting outcomes that will affect the rest of the NBA will be how an expansion draft is structured -- the last time was in 2004, and it was for just one team, the Charlotte Bobcats. At that time, teams were able to protect eight players and lose only one.

There is also the question of how the league will realign the conferences.

Different possibilities are being discussed, including moving one team from the Western Conference to the East -- with Memphis, Minnesota and New Orleans all "competing" to do so.

Aspiration investigation resolution

The league investigation into the LA Clippers and possible salary cap circumvention involving Kawhi Leonard and defunct environmental firm Aspiration has officially outlasted an entire NBA season.
The Clippers' possible guilt and potential punishments have dominated league discussion for weeks, especially in the wake of LA getting some lottery fortune and ending up with the No. 5 pick in the draft.

Aspiration co-founder Joseph Sanberg was sentenced on June 1 to 14 years in prison for defrauding investors of $250 million.

At the start of the Finals, commissioner Adam Silver indicated he'd like the league's investigation to reach a conclusion, too. "We're paying their bills, but they are doing the work independent of the league office," Silver said. "My instruction to them is we can't be investigating forever. At some point, we have to wrap it up."

As for the roster itself, league executives are watching the Clippers closely to see if their midseason shift to a younger lineup continues.

After starting the season with the oldest roster in the league, they began moving younger at the trade deadline as they swapped James Harden, 36, for Darius Garland, 27. Then they sent center Ivica Zubac to Indiana forBennedict Mathurin, 23, and what became the No. 5 pick in the draft. They have team options on 37-year-old Nicolas Batum, 38-year-old Brook Lopez and 33-year-old Bogdan Bogdanovic, totaling $31 million.

If the Clippers want to, they could move on from all of them via release or trade and dramatically clean their books to open space to pay Mathurin, who is a restricted free agent.

If their youth movement continues, it would bring Leonard, who is 34 and going into the final year of his contract, into focus. Once there's clarity on the NBA investigation, there will be decisions to be made with him.

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