Dolphins at Chargers on Sunday night: NFL betting odds, picks, tips

ByESPN Betting and Fantasy Analysts ESPN logo
Sunday, December 11, 2022

The Miami Dolphins and Los Angeles Chargers face off on Sunday night in an important matchup of AFC playoff hopefuls. The Dolphins, who had their five-game winning streak snapped last week, look to bounce back and stay within a game of the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East, while the Chargers are looking for a win to stay in the hunt for a spot in the postseason.

So, what can we expect from a betting standpoint Sunday night?

Our betting experts provide their top plays for the matchup.

Note: Lines from Caesars Sportsbook unless otherwise indicated.

The Dolphins (-3, 52) saw their five-game win streak end last week in San Francisco. They are road favorites in L.A. vs. the struggling Chargers. Do the Dolphins and Tua Tagovailoa bounce back, or are you taking the home underdog in this one?

Fortenbaugh:I'm laying the points with Miami. The Dolphins looked terrible last Sunday because they faced the best defense in the NFL. This week they'll face a Chargers defense that is the exact opposite. Los Angeles currently ranks 28th in pressure rate and 30th or worse in both scoring defense and opponent yards per play. This is a big bounce-back spot for the Dolphins.

Schatz:I'm big on the Dolphins here. The Chargers' offense is a mess. It's still hard to tell which receivers will be healthy, and the offensive line has not been good this year. The defense is poor with specific weaknesses that are a problem against Miami. On first downs, for example, Miami is the No. 2 pass offense, and the Chargers have the No. 29 pass defense. Those intermediate middle passes that Tagovailoa loves so much? The Chargers are 26th in DVOA against those. Meanwhile, the Miami defense has improved since Bradley Chubb showed up, ranking 12th in defensive DVOA against the pass since Week 9. Good luck to Jamaree Salyer and Foster Sarell against that pass rush.

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Moody:I'm backing the Dolphins. In this game, Miami should have no problem accumulating yards or scoring points. Only the Eagles, Bills, and Chiefs accumulate more yards per game than the Dolphins (380.2). Miami scores 25 points per game. The Dolphins are 3-6 against the spread in their past nine games but have had success against the Chargers. Miami is 10-4 against the spread in their 14 games against Los Angeles.Tagovailoa should take advantage of this matchup if he wants to be considered a legitimate MVP candidate.

Snellings: Going over 52 for this game. Much like the Lions-Vikings game earlier in the day, I'm just expecting this one to be a track meet. The Dolphins will be looking to bounce back from that offensive debacle last week against the 49ers, and the Chargers' D should be much more obliging. Meanwhile, the Chargers' offense should put enough on the board against an often-friendly Dolphins defense to hit the over.

Speaking of Tua and Herbert, the passing-yards props are set at 283.5 (Tua) and 288.5 (Herbert). The prop of the NFL's leading receiver, Tyreek Hill,is set at 96.5. Do you like any of those?

Snellings: I actually like all three. This game looks explosive, to me, and I think both teams put big numbers on the board. The Dolphins are among the bottom third of the league in passing yards allowed, and their offense is so electric that Herbert will have to sling it around to keep up. The Dolphins will be looking to bounce back after last week's disappointment, and they do that with offense first. I think Tagovailoa goes over 283.5 yards, Herbert goes over 288.5, and Hill goes over 96.5 yards. I think both QBs pass for 300 yards and Hill breaks the century mark.

What is your favorite player prop for Sunday night?

Snellings:Jeff Wilson Jr. to score a touchdown (+135). Wilson barely saw the field last week in a game in which the Dolphins rushed only eight times as a team, but in the three games prior, Wilson scored a touchdown in each game. The Chargers' run defense is observably horrible; only two teams have given up more than the 15 total touchdowns that the Chargers have allowed, and one of those teams has played more games. Wilson (and Raheem Mostert) both have great chances to score on Sunday.

What else are you playing in this game?

Moody:Dolphins over 27.5 total points. Following a subpar offensive performance last week against the 49ers, Miami will be looking to bounce back this week. The Dolphins have an opportunity to do so thanks to the Chargers' defense. Los Angeles allows the third most points per game and the seventh most total yards per game to opponents. Over the past three games, the Dolphins have averaged 28.7 points per game.