2026 NFL offseason: Making sense of 10 lingering questions

We follow the NFL offseason very closely, and it has this concentrated feel to it. The Super Bowl ends, and we basically go immediately into the combine, free agency, the trade market and the draft -- one right after the other.

Then we get to the middle of May, and fans look up and start to reconsider everything. "Wait, wasn't my favorite team supposed to address wide receiver?" ... "Hold on, wasn't this guy supposed to get a new contract?"

This annual piece is for those unresolved questions -- the stuff we were pretty sure would happen but still has not (at least not yet). Some of those questions have answers, and we have endeavored here to provide some reasoning to 10 of them. Let's start with a team that traded or cut basically everyone amid a transition ... except for its star running back?

Jump to:

CLE | DAL | HOU | LAR | MIA

MIN | NYG | PIT | SF | SEA

Why didn't the Dolphins trade De'Von Achane?

Miami is clearly in rebuild mode, having pared its roster of big salaries, taken on $99 million in dead money by cuttingquarterback Tua Tagovailoa and traded top wide receiver Jaylen Waddle to the Broncos before the draft. Achane has one year left on his rookie contract at $5.767 million, and to this point the Dolphins have not extended him. Achane has averaged 1,445 scrimmage yards and 12 touchdowns per season in his first three years in the league. He also doesn't turn 25 until October.

In a market whereKenneth Walker IIIgot over $14 million per year and Breece Hall got over $15 million per year, one would think Achane at less than $6 million would be an appealing trade target for teams ... and that a team looking to amass draft picks would listen.

Talking to Dolphins people throughout this offseason, what I've been told is that the team views Achane, center Aaron Brewer and linebacker Jordyn Brooks, as foundational players and candidates for extensions rather than trades. Miami is focused on the future, for sure, but new coach Jeff Hafley and new GM Jon-Eric Sullivan aren't interested in just white-flagging their first season by stripping things all the way down to the studs. Also, they need some players to build around, and they have identified Achane as one worth keeping long term.

Now, I was told at the combine that the Dolphins viewed Waddle as a part of their future as well, so the fact that he got traded might lead you to take this with a grain of salt. All I'll say on that is if a team offered a first-round pick for Achane, as the Broncos did for Waddle, the Dolphins' opinion of the standout running back as part of their future might have wavered a bit. But teams aren't offering first-round picks for running backs that they'd then need to pay big money to keep. The smart bet is on the Dolphins extending Achane's contract at some point this offseason.

Why didn't the Cowboys want to extend George Pickens?

In his first season in Dallas, Pickens was one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. He caught 93 passes for 1,429 yards and nine touchdowns. The Cowboys got him for a third-round pick around this time last year, and he more than delivered on that investment. Pickens was eligible for free agency, but the Cowboys used their franchise tag to keep him off the market.

Just before the draft, they announced publicly that they would not work on a long-term contract with Pickens this offseason and that they expected him to play on the franchise tag, which will pay him a fully guaranteed $27.298 million in 2026. Shortly after the draft, Pickens signed his franchise tender, indicating that he intends to do just that.

There are a few reasons the Cowboys want to see Pickens do it again before deciding whether to commit long-term money to him. One is that they're already paying wide receiverCeeDee Lamban average of $34 million per year, and carrying two of the highest-paid receivers in the league would be a salary cap challenge. The other, as team president Stephen Jones said a few weeks ago, is that Pickens is still new to Dallas. He doesn't have as much in the bank with them as he would if it had been the team that drafted and developed him.

There are explanations for why the Cowboys were able to get a player as talented as Pickens from the Steelers a year ago for only a third-round pick, just as there are explanations for why no team sent him an offer sheet after Dallas tagged him. Pickens' time in Pittsburgh included persistent questions about consistency and focus, and while the Cowboys' 2025 experience with him was positive, it's not unreasonable for them to wait another season before making the kind of commitment his on-field performance deserves on its own.

Who knows? If Pickens has another big year and Lamb struggles with health again, maybe the Cowboys feel differently about both players a year from now. But they've decided the franchise tag is the right way to go with Pickens in 2026.

Why didn't the Giants draft Caleb Downs with the 10th pick?

The Giants had Ohio State star Arvell Reese fall into their laps at No. 5 in the draft. Then at No. 10, Downs was sitting right there. The Cowboys had tried to trade up to No. 9 to get Downs, fearful that the Giants would take him. New York could have come out of the first round of the draft feeling like it had locked down two defensive cornerstones for a decade to come.

Instead, the Giants drafted offensive tackle Francis Mauigoa. Dallas exhaled and moved up one spot to make sure it got Downs. And now the Giants will have to play against him twice a year.

So why didn't they take him? Well, they felt like they'd made their defensive pick at No. 5 when Reese was still there. I think there's a chance they'd have taken Downs at No. 5 if Reese had been picked in the top four. But what became clear to me after the draft in talking to people around that situation is that the Giants were determined to use one of their two top-10 picks on an offensive player in an effort to support second-year quarterback Jaxson Dart. That could have meant running back Jeremiyah Love if he'd been there at No. 5. It could have meant wide receivers Carnell Tate or Jordyn Tyson if they'd been there at No. 10. Ultimately, it meant locking in the player the Giants identified as the best offensive lineman in the draft to help fortify Dart's protection.

They're far from the only team that operated this way. Tennessee and New Orleans -- both of whom are building around promising second-year quarterbacks -- drafted Tate and Tyson, respectively, with their first-round picks. Teams try to maximize young quarterbacks' chances to succeed whenever they can, and picking Mauigoa over a second defensive standout was the Giants' way of doing that.

Why didn't the Vikings trade J.J. McCarthy?

The 2025 season was a massive flop for McCarthy, the No. 10 pick in the 2024 draft. The Vikings let Sam Darnold leave in free agency after a 14-win season and handed the starting quarterback job to McCarthy, who looked overwhelmed from the start. His injuries and ineffectiveness doomed the Vikings to missing the playoffs, and as he heads into his third season, McCarthy now has to contend with 2019 No. 1 pick Kyler Murray, who signed with Minnesota after being released by the Cardinals.

The expectation is that Murray was brought in to start. If he does so and plays well, it's hard to envision much of a future in Minnesota for McCarthy. This is his third NFL season, which means the Vikings have to decide next May whether to pick up McCarthy's fifth-year option for 2029. A good, healthy season from Murray that results in a return to the postseason for the Vikings likely means McCarthy won't have played in Year 1 or Year 3 of his rookie deal.

Still, it doesn't make a lot of sense to trade him. The Vikings have already paid 70% of McCarthy's rookie contract. There's no way they could get anything in return that remotely approaches what they spent in terms of draft capital to acquire him in the first place. They're less than a year removed from believing he could be their starter, not just now but for years to come. And it's not like Murray is some automatic fix, either. He has had one fully healthy season in the past five, and the Cardinals are paying him almost $36 million this year to play for another team.

People I've talked to who are close to this situation insist that the Vikings haven't given up on McCarthy -- that part of their hope is bringing in Murray sends some sort of shock to McCarthy's system and gets him refocused on whatever they think he got away from last year. It's probably a long shot, but again, there doesn't seem to be much they would gain from trading him at this point.

Murray is signed for one year, and his deal prohibits the Vikings from franchise-tagging him next offseason. There's a world in which Minnesota gets to the end of this season believing that McCarthy has figured some things out and can still be what it thought he would be. If not, maybe then the Vikings cut bait. But there's no reason to do it now.

Why didn't the Steelers try harder to upgrade at quarterback?

This is a good question. I really think they should be trying harder at that position than they have been since the end of Ben Roethlisberger's career in 2021. The answer here seems to be that they liked what they got out of Aaron Rodgers last season, believe he can do it again and thought that running it back with him was their best course of action. Rodgers, of course, has yet to actually re-sign in Pittsburgh, and no one knows what the holdup is. But they had Rodgers last year, they're familiar with his quirks, and they seem fine with giving him whatever time he needs to give them an answer.

No team seems to enjoy its status quo as much as the Steelers do. Frankly, you can see why. They haven't had a losing season since 2003. They've made the playoffs 17 times this century. No team has won more Super Bowls than the Steelers. They're consistent contenders, year in and year out -- there is almost never a game in which they don't have something to play for. There's more change there than usual this offseason, with Mike Tomlin stepping away after 19 seasons as their head coach, but that appears to have been at least as much Tomlin's decision as it was the team's call.

What irks Steelers fans is the recent inability to rise above the status quo. Pittsburgh hasn't won a playoff game since January 2017. It hasn't won more than 10 games in a season since 2020. It hasn't been to the Super Bowl in 15 years and hasn't won it in 17. It might be time for the Steelers to get outside of their comfort zone and try to find a quarterback solution that isn't just a bandage.

Maybe Will Howard or Drew Allar ends up being the solution. But if that happens, it won't be because the Steelers stretched to get them. Maybe the Steelers finally have a lousy season and find their solution at the top of the 2027 draft. But if that happens, it would be because their plan didn't work. For now, they're once again willing to wait on a 42-year-old who hasn't been a top-20 quarterback by QBR since 2021 because he's competent enough to keep them afloat.

Why didn't the Browns cut Deshaun Watson?

This could have been a question in this article in any of the past three offseasons, and the answer would have been pretty much the same each time: because they have to pay him anyway. This will be, at long last, the final year of the five-year, fully guaranteed contract Watson signed with the Browns as a condition of the trade they made with Houston in March 2022 to acquire him. He will be paid a fully guaranteed $46 million, whether he's on the Browns or not.

As poorly as the first four years of that contract have gone, the Browns still really haven't found a surefire replacement for Watson, and in fact they are holding out the possibility that he could start games for them this season. Shedeur Sanders, who was their fifth-round pick in 2025, seems like the other candidate for the role right now, but if Watson outperforms him in training camp, there's absolutely a chance that Watson is the Week 1 starter.

Now, I want to be clear: I do not think there's a world in which Watson plays well enough this season to convince the Browns to re-sign him and move forward with him as their franchise QB of the future. He turns 31 in September. The contract has been a complete catastrophe in every possible way. And the team's owner has admitted as much publicly.

Watson is on the Browns right now because it wouldn't make sense otherwise, and if they can get something useful out of him before this miserable chapter of their history comes to a end, great. Everyone is looking at the 2027 draft for quarterbacks, and I believe the Browns are one of the teams most interested in finding their long-term answer next April. But cutting Watson simply wouldn't do them any good. They've come this far and paid him all this money. Cleveland might as well see the thing through -- and see whether he can do something to help before it's over.

Why didn't the Texans extend C.J. Stroud?

Houston tends to be very aggressive with its long-term extensions for its veteran stars. The latest example is Will Anderson Jr., who became the league's highest-paid non-quarterback on the extension he got this offseason after three stellar years at the front of the Texans' defense. Stroud and Anderson, the second and third picks in the 2023 draft, respectively, were each eligible for extensions for the first time this offseason. Anderson got his deal early; Stroud's does not appear to be on the horizon.

The Texans picked up Stroud's fifth-year option for 2027, which was a no-brainer because it means they'll pay him a total of $31.6 million over the next two seasons. But it appears the Texans want to wait to see another year before committing long-term quarterback money.

Why? Well for starters, do you remember the last time we all watched Stroud play? His performance in the team's divisional round playoff game in New England was season-endingly poor. His showing the week before in a wild-card playoff victory over the Steelers wasn't very good, either. Stroud was Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2023, and he has won at least one playoff game in each of his three NFL seasons, so there's a lot to like. But the Texans haven't seen marked improvement from him in Years 2 or 3, he missed games because of injury last season and the playoff flops are hard to ignore.

Add in the fact that there aren't currently any big quarterback extensions on the horizon anywhere else that would scare Houston into trying to get ahead of the market. Carolina doesn't seem in a huge hurry to do a Bryce Young extension. Lamar Jackson isn't rushing to do an extension with the Ravens. In turn, the Texans aren't at risk of having to pay a ton more next offseason than they'd likely have to pay this offseason to get Stroud under contract long term. They can afford to wait.

If Stroud rebounds and plays in 2026 the way he did as a rookie, I believe the Texans will have no issues extending him next offseason. Heck, Stroud himself likely realizes he'd be better off putting a better finish on tape and negotiating off that. Everybody involved wants things to be better in 2026 than they were in 2025, so let's see what happens, then make the next move.

Why didn't the Seahawks reward Sam Darnold with a new deal after winning the Super Bowl?

The short answer is that they believe he's already appropriately compensated. Darnold has two years left on his contract. He's scheduled to earn $27.5 million in 2026 and $35.5 million in 2027. And while there are 14 quarterbacks who average more annual salary than Darnold and didn't just win the Super Bowl, this is about the way the Seahawks view the position and its place in roster building and salary cap management.

It's not that the Seahawks undervalue the QB. Darnold's $37.9 million 2026 cap number is the highest on the team, even if it's only the eighth highest among quarterbacks leaguewide. It's that they're determined to not overvalue the position relative to the specific player involved. If the Seahawks had Patrick Mahomes or Lamar Jackson or Josh Allen-- a player who was winning division titles and MVP awards all the time -- then sure, they'd be happy to pay top-of-market money and figure out the rest.

But what the Seahawks have shown since they tradedRussell Wilson after the 2021 season is that they don't want to pay top-of-market quarterback money to a quarterback who isn't a top-of-market player. They were able to sign Darnold for $33.5 million per year when he was an unrestricted free agent coming off a 14-win season in Minnesota. No one else was bidding more. And as a result of getting a good starting quarterback for reasonable money, they were able to build out the rest of their roster in a way that made it championship-caliber. Could the Seahawks have signed DeMarcus Lawrence or Cooper Kupp last offseason if their quarterback's cap number had been $50 million? It would have at least been tougher.

Darnold also made $4 million in incentive bonuses as a result of his 2025 performance and Super Bowl title. So he was rewarded in a way. With two years left on the contract, sure, the Seahawks could have extended him. But that would have gone against the very principles that, they believe, helped them build a Super Bowl champion roster. Championships are validation. If anything, winning it all helped convince Seattle that it was handling the quarterback business the right way all along.

Why didn't the Rams do more in the draft to help their 2026 team?

Because they believed they didn't need to? Seriously, the reason the 2025 Rams fell short of the Super Bowl isn't that they had some devastating deficiency. It's that they lost two out of three to the Seahawks. Pick up a loose ball in the end zone on a two-point conversion try on a Thursday night the week before Christmas, and it might well have been the Rams holding up the Lombardi Trophy six weeks later instead of their division rivals.

Their two trouble spots were the secondary, where they made big moves in free agency to upgrade at cornerback, and special teams, where they made significant coaching staff changes they hope will help. You can make a compelling case that all the Rams needed were minor tweaks, not major upgrades.

So when they drafted Ty Simpson, a quarterback they hope doesn't even see the field as a rookie, with the 13th pick, that was a big part of their thought process. They didn't see a player at that spot they believed would get them over the hump this season as much as they believe Simpson might help secure their post-Matthew Stafford future. If Stafford stays healthy, the Rams should be right back in the mix as one of the best teams in the league in 2026. Their starting lineup, frankly, is going to be a tough one for many (if any) of their draft picks to crack.

Could a 38-year-old Stafford break down, and could the season fall apart as a result? Sure. But the Rams would have been taking that risk even if they'd added, say,Rueben Bain Jr. with the 13th pick. The Rams came out of last season thinking they were a lucky bounce or two away from a title, and they operated their draft accordingly -- thinking about the long term rather than the short.

Why didn't the 49ers trade Brandon Aiyuk?

Mainly because everyone in the league knows they're going to have to eventually release him. The Niners might have voided Aiyuk's contract guarantees last year, but they didn't void the contract entirely. If he's on their team in 2026, they have to pay him $27 million. If a team traded for him, it would have to pay him $27 million. If the 49ers cut him, they don't have to pay him that money -- and the team that signs him could theoretically get him for less.

Knowing the relationship is broken and that the Niners will almost certainly cut Aiyuk before having to pay his Week 1 salary, teams have decided they can afford to wait. The Niners don't need to cut him until it's time for him to get paid, so they can wait, too, and see whether a team ultimately decides to send them a draft pick for Aiyuk.

I do believe he will be on a different team in 2026, and most people have been assuming that team would be theCommanders. But given the way things have gone between Aiyuk and the 49ers over the past couple of years, San Francisco doesn't appear to be in a hurry to do him the favor of making him a free agent.

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