New poll shows Steyer edging Hilton in CA governor's race as battle for 2nd tightens

SAN FRANCISCO -- A new poll released Saturday suggests California's race for governor remains highly competitive, with Democrat Tom Steyer narrowly moving ahead of Republican Steve Hilton in the battle for second place.

The Emerson College poll found former U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Xavier Becerra is leading the field with 28% support. Steyer followed with 22%, while Hilton was close behind at 21%.

The results differ from a closely watched Berkeley Institute of Governmental Studies poll released Friday. That survey showed Becerra leading with 25%, Hilton in second at 21% and Steyer at 19%.

While the two polls disagree on who is in second place, both point to the same conclusion: Becerra, Steyer and Hilton have separated themselves from the rest of the field ahead of Tuesday's primary election.

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Under California's top-two primary system, the two candidates who receive the most votes advance to the November general election regardless of party affiliation.

Political data analyst Paul Mitchell said the latest polling shows the race has evolved significantly from earlier this year, when Democrats were divided among a larger field of candidates and some observers raised concerns that two Republicans could advance to the general election.

"Both of those things in tandem change the math here," Mitchell said, referring to former Congressman Eric Swalwell's departure from the race and Hilton's consolidation of Republican support following an endorsement from President Donald Trump. "One fewer Democrats to split up the vote on their side."

Other Democratic candidates have dropped out of the race in recent months, narrowing the field and helping concentrate support among the remaining contenders.

The possibility of a Democrat vs. Democrat general election, once considered unlikely, is now drawing increased attention as Steyer and Hilton continue to trade positions in recent polling.

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Still, Mitchell said the race for the second runoff spot remains too close to call.

"We really do see this as a three-way race," Mitchell said. "With margins of error on this, you could say it's just as likely that Steyer or Hilton make that second spot."

More than 3.3 million Californians had already returned ballots as of Saturday, according to state election data, while millions more remained outstanding ahead of Election Day.

Mitchell noted that Republicans initially appeared to be turning out at higher rates than Democrats compared with the 2022 gubernatorial primary, though turnout patterns continue to evolve as more ballots are returned.