California Proposition 50 will pass, ABC News projects

From 80-year-olds who have never missed an election to newly turned 18-year-olds casting their first ballots, Sonoma County voters in the Bay Area are turning out for Tuesday's special election.

At the county Registrar of Voters office in Santa Rosa, Calif., residents said they understand what's at stake, particularly if Proposition 50 passes.

At the county Registrar of Voters office in Santa Rosa, residents said they understand what's at stake, particularly if Proposition 50 passes. The measure could shift parts of Santa Rosa and Sonoma County into District One, a historically Republican area that stretches north to include Red Bluff and Chico.

"Every door I knocked on, people were really motivated to vote," said Chris Snyder, political director for Operating Engineers Local 3. "They understood what it was and why it was important to rebalance power."
For some, this election marks an important milestone. Peter Klein and Tiyana Andrews both turned 18 this past summer.

Andrews, a political science major, said she hopes her peers realize how much their votes matter.

"I think that's a lot of the problem, people don't think their vote is important," Andrews said. "It might make people want to come out and vote more."

One voter, Cannon Meiers, turned 18 on Election Day, giving new meaning to his birthday.

"Nervous," he said when asked how it felt to cast his first ballot, while holding birthday balloons.

His mother, Amy Meiers, said the family prepared together.

"It is a lot of power," she said. "We've looked at both sides of everything. We went over how to research. It's part of being a voter. I'm just so proud of him."

County officials report 55% of ballots already cast by mail or dropped off in advance, noting a very engaged community and high turnout.

"You see the action all around here," said Evelyn Mendez, the new Sonoma County Registrar. "We'll probably be over 65%, which is good for a special election."

Mendez hopes in future elections, the county will hit record numbers with 16 and 17-year-old as pre-registered voters.

"I want to be a champion for those young people," said Mendez. "Whether you're in office or if you're a student at the school, your vote matters."

For longtime voters like Dmitri Rusov-Morningstar, 80, participation itself is a point of pride.

"It makes me feel worthwhile," he said. "Like I've been worthwhile all these years."

Stella Anne De Vito, 83, agreed, reflecting on seeing the younger voters.

"It's great to see young people getting involved," said De Vito. "I'm hoping to make another 100 years."

No matter the outcome, many Sonoma County residents say they're grateful for the chance to make their voices heard.

"We have such a privilege to be able to vote," said Isabel Holmes, 22. "Regardless of how people stand."

If Prop 50 passes, some congressional districts won't change, but others would disappear -- like Republican Ken Calvert's district, which would move from Riverside County to L.A. County.

Instead, voters in Downey and Norwalk would decide who represents them in the new district. Many of those voters are liberal.

Calvert would most likely face a steep uphill battle to retain his congressional seat, which he has held for more than 30 years.

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If Prop 50 passes, some congressional districts won't change, but others would disappear -- like Republican Ken Calvert's district, which would move from Riverside County to L.A. County.

Although California voters still have several more hours to cast their ballot, counting is already underway across the state.

At the San Bernardino County Registrar of Voters, things were in full swing as workers processed mail-in ballots.

Employees wearing a yellow vest are the only people that are allowed to handle any of the ballots that have been returned so far.

At the San Bernardino County Registrar of Voters, things were in full swing as workers processed mail-in ballots.

"I think we've received, to date, 295,000 mail ballots returned, and those have already gone through this process, have been scanned. We're hoping to see at least that much, if not a little bit more, tonight," said Joani Finwall, the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters.

Every ballot is scanned in a high-speed scanner, which detects voter signatures that are written on the ballot.

"Some of the signatures, the ones that are easy matches, go and ahead and get matched by this machine," said Joani Finwall, the San Bernardino Registrar of Voters. "And the others that... need the human eye, we have done manually."

Voting locations statewide close at 8 p.m., and officials expect the first batch of results to come in shortly after that.

A new poll shows that likely California voters favor Proposition 50, a ballot measure that puts forth a redrawn congressional map that could net Democrats five House seats.

According to a Public Institute of California (PPIC) poll published Wednesday, 56% of likely California voters say they will vote for Prop. 50 in the special election, and 43% are against it.

There are significant partisan differences in the numbers, with 84% of Democrats in support of the ballot measure, while 89% of Republicans say they will not vote for it. Independent voters appear to be leaning toward the left, with 55% responding affirmatively to the proposition, PPIC found.

Introduced by California Gov. Gavin Newsom and passed by the state legislature in August, the proposed map could give Democrats the opportunity to flip five Republican-held seats. Prop 50 came in retaliation to Texas' mid-decade redistricting, where Republican-friendly maps passed into law this summer could net the GOP five House seats.

Congressional district lines are normally redrawn each decade after the U.S. Census.

Most likely voters also stress the importance of Prop 50, with 68% saying the outcome of the ballot measure is "very important" to them, and 22% saying "somewhat important."

Newsom, considered a possible 2028 presidential candidate, has championed Prop 50 as an opportunity to "fight back" against Trump, who pushed Texas' redistricting efforts, and the ballot measure could raise his national profile.

California likely voters were mostly supportive of Newsom's leadership in the poll, with 55% saying they approve of his overall performance as governor.

Prominent political figures have joined forces with Newsom and thrown their support behind the ballot initiative, including former President Barack Obama, who rallied alongside the governor to champion the measure. In addition, Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, D-N.Y., and Sen. Elizabeth Warren, D-Mass., cutting ads in favor of it.

California was the first Democratic state to enter the redistricting battle, with Virginia Democrats following suit last week and announcing plans to attempt to redraw maps as well. On Wednesday, the Virginia House of Delegates passed a constitutional amendment on redrawing congressional maps, according to ABC affiliate WRIC, and the measure now moves to state Senate review.

Following Texas, other Republican-controlled states have also entered the redistricting battle -- Missouri and North Carolina have adopted new maps, while Utah and Indiana are in the process of redrawing theirs.

Some Democrats in Maryland and Illinois have called for their states to redistrict, but not all leaders have bought in. Earlier on Wednesday, the Maryland state Senate chose "not to move forward" with mid-decade redistricting, according to a letter obtained by ABC News.

A new lawsuit filed Monday seeks to redraw New York's congressional maps in favor of Democrats, with plaintiffs arguing that the current lines are unconstitutional for misrepresenting Black and Latino votes, according to The Associtated Press.

Legislators in Republican-controlled Kansas and Florida have also indicated that they are considering mid-decade redistricting.

ABC News contributed to this report.