Simulating the 2021 NFL season: Projecting 285 games, biggest storylines and a Super Bowl winner

Heading into the 2021 NFL season, ESPN's Football Power Index (FPI) simulated the entire 285-game slate 20,000 times to create our projections. Having a sample size that large allows us to have the most accurate projections possible, which is, of course, what we want most of the time. But today, we're only focused on one of them: Simulation No.13,330.

Combined, those 20,000 simulations -- which, in the preseason, use expected starting quarterbacks, past performance, returning starters and projected win totalsto generate a strength rating for every team-- give us a good idea of what we think will happen, but nothing ever goes to plan. Surprises happen every year, and every team can win on any given Sunday. So we're running from the safe haven of our projections and looking at just one of the simulations.

We played out every single game of that simulation to give us one plausible outcome for the 2021 season. That means projected winners and losers for every regular-season game, potential division-race storylines, surprise contenders and a look at how the 13 playoff games might play out. From it all, we get a drought-ending Super Bowl LVI winner and a top-five draft order for 2022 that comes with a bit of a shocker.

Will it all happen this way? It could. But again, this is just one single simulation. To put some context on the results, we applied some creative license, detailing potential breakout stars, quarterback controversies and more. Let's dive in, with 12 big takeaways from how it all went down.

Jump to:br/>Final standings| Super Bowl

Jags' hot start yields ... a playoff berth?!?

Jacksonville Jaguars rookie quarterback Trevor Lawrence kicked off his NFL career in a way that resembled his college career: winning. Coach Urban Meyer's team took advantage of a soft schedule out of the gate, beating Houston, Denver and Arizona to start the season before dropping a game to the Bengals. Then it rebounded with its best win of the group, a 31-14 victory over Tennessee. A 4-1 start is nothing to sneer at, no matter the opponents.

And even though the Jaguars cooled off after their quick start -- Jacksonville went 3-5 over its next eight games -- their early-season work got the job done. Lawrence's solid rookie year was bolstered by an immediate connection with receiverLaviska Shenault Jr., who recorded 90 receptions, helping earn Jacksonville a 9-8 record and a wild-card berth in the AFC.

And the Jaguars' story didn't end there: They went on to win a playoff game, too. More on that later, but not a bad start for the Lawrence-Meyer duo in Jacksonville.

Justin Fields to the (eventual) rescue

Are the Chicago Bears making a mistake starting the season with Andy Dalton at quarterback? Well, in Simulation No. 13,330, they did.

Chicago started the season ugly, going 1-3 before pulling the plug on Dalton and inserting Fields. Initially, the move didn't look like it made much of a difference. Fields dropped his debut against the Raiders and then had brutal back-to-back games against the Packers and Buccaneers, taking a combined 11 sacks and guiding the offense to just 10 total points in the pair of losses. Sitting at 1-6, Chicago fans began turning their eyes to 2022. And then the version of Fields that Ohio State fans have enjoyed over the past few years emerged, and the winds shifted at Soldier Field.

First, it was a surprise win at home against the 49ers. Then came a road victory at Heinz Field against the Steelers. Next was an upset over Lamar Jackson and the Ravens, followed by a brushing aside of the Lions. And the Bears weren't done just yet.

Entering Week 18, the 7-9 Bears headed to Minneapolis to take on the 8-8 Vikings, with both teams still in the running for a wild-card spot. It was receiver Darnell Mooney (two touchdowns) and safety Eddie Jackson (one interception off Vikings QB Kirk Cousins) who stole the show, and in the end, the Bears won 20-16, pulling off an incredible season turnaround that yielded a playoff berth despite a sub-.500 record. But a playoff berth is a playoff berth.

Seahawks fall apart

Coach Pete Carroll and new offensive coordinator Shane Waldron tried it all. They tried to "let Russ cook." They tried to run the ball. They tried everything in between. It didn't matter. The Seattle Seahawks couldn't recapture the magic of their early 2020 offense, while a questionable pass rush and a lacking secondary betrayed them on defense.

In this simulation, Seattle started the year with a loss ... then another loss ... and then another. By midseason, the team was the shock of the league, staring at an 0-8 record. Six of those losses were by one score, though the Seahawks were pummeled in Week 6 by the Steelers in a 29-point loss. As the season passed its midway point, no other team stood winless.

Seattle lost again in Week 10 to drop to 0-9, ensuring a losing season for the first time since 2011, before finally getting a 26-20 win in Week 11 against Arizona. The ball started bouncing the Seahawks' way down the stretch, and Seattle ultimately closed the book on the season at 5-12. But it wasn't enough to avoid major shakeup on the coaching staff and the roster.

Panthers earn the No. 1 overall pick

There was a moment, early in the season, when it looked like the Sam Darnold experiment was going to work out and that offensive coordinator Joe Brady had fixed the mess that Adam Gase (Darnold's former coach in New York) had made. The Carolina Panthers opened the season 4-1, first beating Darnold's old Jets team in Week 1 and then going on to earn wins against the Saints, Texans and Eagles (with a loss to the Cowboys). But those opponents were not that tough, and the 4-1 record was a mirage.

Coach Matt Rhule's team would win just one more game the rest of the way (against the Falcons) and end the season at 5-12 and in a dramatic five-way tie for the NFL's worst record. Carolina needed to lose in its final week to win the strength-of-schedule tiebreaker and earn the No. 1 overall pick -- and it did, as the Bucs beat Carolina 33-7.

Darnold is under contract with the Panthers through the 2022 season, but Carolina would likely be taking serious looks atSpencer Rattler, Sam Howelland the rest of the 2022 class' top QBs come next April if things play out like this.

Here are the rest of the teams picking in the top five, all of which finished at 5-12: