Biggest strengths for top current 2026 MLB playoff contenders

Read it and weep: We're going to hit the halfway point of the 2026 MLB season this week. It has been ... well, a lot of strange and surprising things have happened. Some good (the Chicago White Sox!), some not so good (the New York Mets!).

While there's obviously still a lot of baseball left to be played, let's take a moment to dive into some of this year's postseason contenders as theAtlanta Braves and San Diego Padres, both in the playoff hunt in the National League, face each other tonight on ESPN (10 p.m. ET).

We'll look at the biggest strength of each of the top 16 teams in last week's ESPN MLB power rankings and whether that will continue in the second half. By no means are those 16 the only playoff contenders: In this season of parity, almost every team is still in the playoff chase. As of Sunday morning, FanGraphs projects 24 teams with at least a 13% chance of making the postseason, with 20 of those at 20% or higher.

(All stats through Saturday's games.)

NATIONAL LEAGUE

Los Angeles Dodgers

Week 12 ranking: 1

Record: 49-29 (1st in NL West)

Biggest strength: Rotation depth

The Dodgers lead the majors with a 3.15 rotation ERA and 43 quality starts -- even though Blake Snell has made just one start and Tyler Glasnow just seven. Shohei Ohtani has led the way, of course, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto has been excellent as always, but the big surprise has been Justin Wrobleski, who is 8-2 with a 2.72 ERA and has given the Dodgers a big three through the first half.

Will it continue? Wrobleski ranks 126th out of 139 pitchers with at least 50 innings in strikeout rate. The bottom 21 pitchers on the list have combined for a 5.06 ERA, so Wrobleski's success despite a low strikeout rate is an outlier. He throws strikes and has limited home runs, but he is not limiting hard contact (15th percentile) and his ground ball rate is a little below average, meaning there's nothing in the periphery numbers that suggests this will continue.

But it doesn't have to. The Dodgers have Snell and Glasnow on the injured list. Roki Sasaki has been much better after a terrible April, although he's still inconsistent. River Ryan is sitting in Triple-A and is probably a better rotation option right now than Eric Lauer. The Dodgers will hope Yamamoto and Ohtani are healthy come October and then slot in whoever is pitching the best once the postseason kicks in.

Atlanta Braves

Week 12 ranking: 2

Record: 48-28 (1st in NL East)

Biggest strength: Back end of the bullpen

The Braves lead the majors in win probability added from the bullpen as Raisel Iglesias (1.48 ERA, 15-for-15 in save chances), Robert Suarez (0.56 ERA) and Dylan Lee (1.08 ERA) have all slammed the door. Throw in rookie Didier Fuentes (2.45 ERA), who has pitched his way into high-leverage usage, and that foursome has allowed just four home runs in 118 innings while limiting batters to a .187 average.

Will it continue? At this very high level? Probably not, but this is an excellent bullpen and should remain one of the best late-game pens in the majors. Lee, as the lone lefty of the four, is the key guy, the one who will have to face the likes of Ohtani and Kyle Schwarber in big moments in the postseason. Lee's fastball averages 93.3 mph, but batters aren't touching it, and his slider has induced a whiff rate of 43%. He's an extreme fly ball pitcher and allowed 13 home runs last season but has kept the ball in the park this year.

Milwaukee Brewers

Week 12 ranking: 3

Record: 46-29 (1st in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Hitting in the clutch

Well, obviously the Brewers' biggest strength has been Jacob Misiorowski, the flame-throwing wonder who has led the pitching staff with help from Kyle Harrison and reliever Aaron Ashby. Those three are a combined 24-5 and, yes, win-loss records are still fun to look at sometimes.

But the more interesting aspect to the Brewers: They're tied for 27th in home runs and yet rank second in runs per game. Sure, they're fourth in batting average, but they're scoring runs because they've hit well with runners in scoring position, leading the majors with an .819 OPS. FanGraphs tracks something it calls "clutch," which is how much better a hitter does in high-leverage situations compared with a context-neutral situation -- and the Brewers rank second as a team in clutch performance, behind only the Braves. In the big moments, Milwaukee raises its performance.

Will it continue? Why not? Ben Lindbergh tackled this subject in depth last week on The Ringer, asking if the Brewers have "cracked the clutchness code." He pointed out that this will be the seventh consecutive season the Brewers have outhit the league with runners in scoring position -- and usually by a large margin, as is the case in 2026 when the MLB average with RISP is a .737 OPS. They make their hits count and have done it with different players through the years. The traditional take might be to expect the Brewers to eventually regress to the mean, but that hasn't happened for seven years now.

Philadelphia Phillies

Week 12 ranking: 6

Record: 42-35 (2nd in NL East)

Strength: Cristopher Sanchez and Kyle Schwarber

The Phillies have always been a little top-heavy in their roster construction, but that divide is even more extreme this year as Sanchez and Schwarber have done much of the heavy lifting. Saturday's blowout win over the Mets was a nice summation of the 2026 Phillies: Sanchez improved to 9-3 with a 1.80 ERA while Schwarber blasted three home runs, including two in the third inning that totaled a massive 913 feet, giving him 28 total homers and putting him back on pace to challenge the 60-homer barrier.

Will it continue? Sure ... but that's not necessarily the issue. The Phillies are 32-16 under interim manager Don Mattingly, so maybe a new voice has helped, but this is still a team with a lot of holes -- the back of the rotation with Aaron Nola and the recently demoted Andrew Painter has been bad, the lineup is well below average in runs per game, and the defense isn't good (last in the majors in defensive runs saved). You wouldn't want to face Sanchez and Zack Wheeler in a playoff series, but the Phillies need more production from the likes of Trea Turner, J.T. Realmuto and Alec Bohm to get there.

St. Louis Cardinals

Week 12 ranking: 7

Record: 41-34 (2nd in NL Central)

Strength: The top of the lineup

With Ivan Herrera getting on at a .400 clip and Jordan Walker putting up big numbers, the Cardinals rank tied for fourth in the majors in OPS from lineup spots 1 through 4 -- which is usually JJ Wetherholt, Herrera, Alec Burleson and Walker.

Will it continue? It should. There is nothing fluky behind Walker's numbers; at 24 years old, he seems to have figured it out. With the help of 20 hit by pitches, Herrera has turned into an on-base machine and could become just the second modern player to be hit more than 35 times in a season (Ron Hunt holds the post-1900 record at 50, but Don Baylor's 35 is second highest). Wetherholt continues to impress as a rookie, and Burleson is showing a little more pop than last season. The key will be getting more offense from spots 5 through 9, where the Cardinals rank 26th in OPS. Getting Lars Nootbaar back should help, and maybe they'll get more from third base and center field after the struggling Nolan Gorman and Victor Scott II were sent down.

Chicago Cubs

Week 12 ranking: 11

Record: 40-37 (3rd in NL Central)

Biggest strength: Defense

AlthoughPete Crow-Armstrong (100th percentile in Statcast's outs above average), Dansby Swanson (99th percentile) and Nico Hoerner (96th percentile) remain elite, the story of the Cubs' season hasn't been what they do with their gloves, but what they haven't done with their bats: Hit with runners in scoring position. They're the anti-Brewers. The Cubs are seventh overall in OPS but 21st with runners in scoring position (and 23rd in FanGraphs "clutch" rating).

Will it continue? The defense? Yes. That has helped cover for what has been a shaky pitching staff at times. No doubt the Cubs will be on the prowl for both rotation and bullpen help. But hitting with runners in scoring position? In this case, we'll go with positive regression, which would be the ticket to get the Cubs back into the postseason.

Arizona Diamondbacks

Week 12 ranking: 12

Record: 39-38 (3rd in NL West)

Biggest strength: Umm ... the offense has underperformed

OK, that's not really a strength, unless you consider that the Diamondbacks are still over .500 even though the offense has underperformed compared with last season. Indeed, it's a little difficult to figure out how they're over .500 in the first place considering they're scoring about a half-run less per game than last year and the rotation is 29th in strikeout rate and has just two pitchers with an ERA under 4.97. And while the bullpen has been good, it's not like Arizona has cleaned up in one-run games (13-12) or extra-inning games (2-4).

Will it continue? Sorry about the confusion here. This is more complicated than the 2016 Diamondbacks' uniform scheme. We're asking: Will the underperforming continue? Which isn't a strength, since the Diamondbacks need the strength to be "better offense." Anyway, FanGraphs projects Arizona averaging 4.59 runs per game the rest of the way, which is better than its current 4.28. But it's probably not enough to get into the playoffs, unless the Diamondbacks start getting better work from the back end of the rotation.

Washington Nationals

Week 12 ranking: 13

Record: 40-38 (3rd in NL East)

Biggest strength: The offense

If you had this on your bingo card before the season started, you're lying: The Nationals are leading the majors in runs per game -- just a year after ranking 20th. They've improved by more than a run per game and, yes, that's an unusual improvement in performance. The underlying numbers indicate the offense has been legit, and it helps to have James Wood leading the way.

Will it continue? I don't think they'll end up leading the majors in runs scored, but there are reasons to believe they'll continue to score runs. The Nationals have improved their team walk rate from a season ago, from 28th to 22nd; not great, but better. Even though Wood is among the leaders in strikeouts, they're a pretty good contact-hitting team, ninth in lowest strikeout rate. They have power, and some of the guys having productive seasons -- Curtis Mead, Keibert Ruiz -- are former top prospects who have solved the riddle of major league pitching. A lot still rests on Wood and CJ Abrams, and remember that Wood collapsed in the second half last year, but this lineup has some depth -- even more if Dylan Crews starts clicking.

Pittsburgh Pirates

Week 12 ranking: 14

Record: 39-39 (4th in NL Central)

Biggest strength: They've scored runs!

This absolutely requires an exclamation point because the Pirates did not score runs a year ago. They're fifth in the majors in runs per game and their year-to-year improvement in wRC+ is 24 points, the biggest increase in the majors. What's interesting is that they've been without Oneil Cruz since June 6 and without Konnor Griffin since May 30, but they've actually hit just as well as a team in June as they did in May and better than they hit in April. They've struggled in June only because their pitching collapsed.

Will it continue? It feels like the Pirates are on the cliff right now. FanGraphs believes their offense has overachieved and sees a significant decline the rest of the way -- about a half run per game. And with their pitching situation suddenly more precarious than it looked a few weeks ago -- winning some Paul Skenes starts would help -- the Pirates' playoff odds have dropped from 57% at the start of June to about 38% now. I'm a little more optimistic about the offense than FanGraphs is, especially if the Pirates find a way to upgrade catcher and DH.

San Diego Padres

Week 12 ranking: 15

Record: 39-37 (2nd in NL West)

Biggest strength: Bullpen

No surprise here, as Mason Miller is having one of the most dominant closer seasons of all time and he has plenty of help behind him with the likes of Jason Adam, Wandy Peralta, Adrian Morejon, Bradgley Rodriguez and others. The San Diego bullpen is second behind Atlanta's in ERA, leads the majors in WAR and ground ball rate, and ranks fourth in OPS allowed and sixth in strikeout rate. Miller gets the attention, but it's a deep bullpen with depth from both sides.

Will it continue? Sure, although the more important question: Can the Padres get Miller enough leads in the first place? The offense continues to sputter while the rotation has been below average (25th in ERA despite playing in a pitchers' park). Manager Craig Stammen also must be careful about overusing his primary relievers. Miller has been deployed cautiously, but Rodriguez was just sent down to the minors to get some rest.

AMERICAN LEAGUE

New York Yankees

Week 12 ranking: 4

Record: 46-30 (1st in AL East)

Biggest strength: Power

The Yankees lead the majors in home runs even though Aaron Judge hasn't played this month. Their run production has remained stable without their star slugger and with Ben Rice falling off a bit in June so far thanks to others picking it up -- Paul Goldschmidt, in particular. But they're also getting results up and down the lineup, including from youngsters Jasson Dominguez, Spencer Jones and even the much-maligned Anthony Volpe.

Will it continue? Sure. The Yankees have pulled away as the class of the AL -- check out their run differential compared with the rest of the league -- and this lineup has enough firepower to maintain things even if Judge is out until mid-August or September. It's not a sure thing, especially with Trent Grisham and Giancarlo Stanton also on the IL, but if Rice keeps hitting and Goldschmidt keeps drinking from the fountain of youth, they'll be fine. FanGraphs projects the Yankees to score the third-most runs the rest of the way, behind the Dodgers and A's.

Tampa Bay Rays

Week 12 ranking: 5

Record: 43-31 (2nd in AL East)

Biggest strength: 25-10 at home

Back at Tropicana Field after a year at the Yankees' spring training stadium, the Rays have enjoyed their return to indoor baseball with the best home record in the majors. Here's where the math doesn't math, though: The Rays are 15 games over .500 despite outscoring their opponents by just 22 runs. Shane McClanahan is 5-0 with a 2.05 ERA at home while Yandy Diaz is hitting .356 and Junior Caminero .331, both with an OPS over 1.000.

Will it continue? The Rays have historically had one of the biggest home-field advantages in the majors, so this isn't anything new, but it's more about winning all those close games. When they roared out to a 34-15 start, they went 9-1 in one-run games. We said that pace was not sustainable. Since then, they've gone 1-7 in one-run games and 8-16 overall heading into Sunday's game. Their hot start built them a nice cushion over the rest of the mediocre AL (except the Yankees), but they're only plus-7 in run differential on the season. If they play .500 ball the rest of the way, that will probably get them into the playoffs -- but it won't win the AL East.

Chicago White Sox

Week 12 ranking: 8

Record: 39-37 (2nd in AL Central)

Biggest strength: Power

No, you did not have the White Sox entering the top 10 in the power rankings on your preseason bingo card either. Entering Sunday, they're tied with the Dodgers for the second-most home runs in the majors. While the Dodgers are paying their position players about $204 million (counting half of Ohtani's salary), the White Sox are paying their position players about $48 million, most of that to Munetaka Murakami and Andrew Benintendi. Murakami, who has been out since May 29, has slammed 20 home runs, as hasColson Montgomery. Miguel Vargas has hit 16. The White Sox are on pace for 227 home runs, which would be the fourth-highest total in team history -- and 62 more than they hit last season.

Will it continue? Yes, I think so, although there might be a drop-off until Murakami returns around the All-Star break. When Montgomery hit his 20th homer of the season, and 40th career home run, last Thursday, it made him the sixth-fastest player to the 40 mark (141 games). Vargas has increased his average bat speed from 70.6 mph to 74.2 mph in 2026 while maintaining his excellent plate discipline and, guess what, swinging harder has led to more power. We'll see if the White Sox have enough pitching, but it has been a fun start with a young and exciting (and inexpensive) lineup.

Cleveland Guardians

Week 12 ranking: 9

Record: 41-37 (1st in AL Central)

Biggest strength: Rotation stability and bullpen depth

As always, the Guardians just find a way to win. The starting pitching has been very good, ranking eighth with a 3.82 ERA, although some of their peripheral numbers aren't quite as impressive (they've allowed a lot of home runs). But the Guardians are the only team to use five starters so far (and only three others have used just six). Avoiding bad starters can be just as important as rolling out good ones. Then there's the bullpen, always a Cleveland specialty. Again, the pen is just 11th in ERA, but the Guardians have 66 holds, 11 more than any other team, while Cade Smith leads the majors with 24 saves.

Will it continue? Hey, this is what the Guardians do. Manager Stephen Vogt and pitching coach Carl Willis run a pitching staff as well as any duo in the majors. If the starters stay healthy -- Gavin Williams and Parker Messick are potential All-Stars -- then the Guardians should win the division.

Seattle Mariners

Week 12 ranking: 10

Record:40-39 (1st in AL West)

Biggest strength: Rotation depth

It has been a frustrating first half for the Mariners, compounded by a complete inability to hit left-handed pitching. After getting two hits in back-to-back games on Friday and Saturday in games started by lefties Ranger Suarez and Connelly Early, the Mariners are hitting .207 against left-handers. Ignoring the shortened 2020 season, the only teams since 1920 with a lower average against southpaws were the 1941 Phillies (a team that lost 111 games) and the 1968 Yankees. So that means the rotation has kept the team afloat. It's been good (first in innings, fifth in ERA) although not necessarily dominant when factoring in pitcher-friendly T-Mobile Park.

Will it continue? Sure. Since Bryce Miller returned -- and he has been their best starter with a 1.58 ERA in seven outings -- the Mariners have had six starters. After initially using Miller and Luis Castillo in a piggyback role on the same day, they will now rotate all six starters through the piggyback/tandem role. Talk about avoiding a decision. Going to a six-man rotation would be easier -- or just putting Castillo and his 5.22 ERA in the bullpen. Then there's top prospect Kade Anderson, who has dominated Double-A (1.02 ERA, 90 strikeouts, eight walks) and looks ready for the majors. It makes you wonder if the Mariners will consider trading a starter for an impact right-handed bat.

Athletics

Week 12 ranking: 16

Record: 38-40 (2nd in AL West)

Biggest strength: The offense

No surprise here. Nick Kurtz, after a bit of a slow start, is back to doing another Jim Thome impersonation. Shea Langeliers should start the All-Star Game. Tyler Soderstrom and Zack Gelof have been hitting while Carlos Cortes has come out of nowhere to help. There is even more upside here, however, considering Brent Rooker struggled before his injury, Jacob Wilson is well under what he did last year and Lawrence Butler is trying to get his average over .200.

Will it continue? Yes. The A's are 10th in runs per game at 4.64, but FanGraphs has them as the second-best offense the rest of the way at 4.88 runs per game. Seems reasonable. The AL West is wide open with the Mariners scuffling around .500, so if offense picks it up a little -- and maybe the A's add some help on the pitching side at the trade deadline -- don't be shocked if the A's take the division.