Harris' shift in tone on Gaza earns her limited leeway with DNC protesters: ANALYSIS

CHICAGO -- Vice President Kamala Harris has benefited from a wait-and-see period from activists frustrated with the Biden administration's handling of the war in Gaza.

That grace period may be ending.

Thousands of protesters descended on Chicago on Monday to voice their outrage with the administration's approach to the fighting. The ferocity and magnitude of the demonstration indicated that critics' dismay isn't being quelled by a shift at the top of Democrats' presidential ticket -- that protests, including on college campuses as the academic year starts up, are set to cause the party heartburn heading into November.

"In the wake of a mass shooting, Democratic leaders are quick to say, 'thoughts and prayers are not enough.' I agree. As vice president, Harris takes a more empathetic tone we say the same to her," said June Rose, a delegate from Rhode Island representing voters who picked "uncommitted" in the Democratic primary. "We need meaningful policy change. We need an immediate, permanent cease-fire and an arms embargo."

Harris' expected replacement of President Joe Biden as Democrats' presidential nominee took place during a summer when campus protests eased as students left campuses and as historic events, like the assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump and Biden's suspension of his campaign, sucked up political oxygen from coast to coast.

She also adopted a tonal shift from Biden, rhetorically placing what operatives and activists alike viewed as a greater emphasis on Palestinian civilian suffering amid Israel's punishing military operations in Gaza, raising speculation that she could enjoy, if not goodwill, at least less resistance than Biden had.

But Harris has not broken with Biden's policy on the war in any significant way, including opposing an arms embargo and insisting on Israel's right to defend itself, while still vociferously supporting a cease-fire and return of Israeli and other hostages held by Hamas, whose Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel killed more than 1,200, according to Israeli officials, and sparked the war.

That policy consistency is limiting the leeway she has with her party's left flank, which has for months expressed its displeasure with what they see as Washington's unwillingness or inability to reign in a spiraling death toll in Gaza. That death toll marked a grim milestone last week, surpassing 40,000 since Oct. 7, according to the Hamas-run Gaza Health Ministry.

"There is the base of supporters within the community that were going to support Harris as soon as she got onto the ticket, but for majority of our community, there's still concerns over the way what's happening in Gaza is being handled, and they want to see more of a substantive policy position and a policy change," American-Arab Anti-Discrimination Committee National Executive Director Abed Ayoub said. " There's still this frustration over what's happening."

That frustration was clear to see in Chicago on Monday.

Demonstrators were able to break through a section of the security perimeter of the convention as the crowd swelled before the convention program kicked off. The inner security barrier was not breached, but protesters, some donning traditional Palestinian garb, made their displeasure known and demanded a cessation of aid to Israel.

And even as Biden passes the baton to Harris, protesters made clear they aren't done with him either.

Protesters unfurled a banner reading, "STOP ARMING ISRAEL" on the convention floor, causing the DNC to shut off spotlights pointed at the section.

The demonstration just blocks away from the convention and in the hall itself echoed protests from earlier this year, including the campus encampments that paralyzed universities across the country, dominated cable news and offered Republicans fertile ground for attack.

It's a trip back to the future that Harris' allies are eager to avoid, hoping that the tonal shift will stop the protests from reaching such a crescendo, if not end them entirely.

"There is hope that they are less of a headwind than we feared six months ago," said one source familiar with the Harris campaign's thinking.

Harris' supporters also insisted that the wing of the party that holds the war in Gaza as its top issue is small, and that while protests grab headlines and force uncomfortable conversations, those participating ultimately make up a sliver of the electorate -- and that they're playing a card that's already been dealt.

Voters have "seen these types of protests for nearly a year now. So, I think it would need to rise to a different level than they have previously for it to have a real impact on coverage," the source familiar with the Harris campaign's thinking said. "I think it's important to keep in mind that those activists and protesters reflect a small share of the party."

Some activists allowed that Harris has little bandwidth to break new ground on policy while still serving as vice president in an administration that is actively engaged in cease-fire talks.

And while the outreach to activists hasn't been as muscular as they're hoping for, the tonal shift hasn't gone unnoticed.

"When she talks about it, you get the feeling that she sees that there are people there. When [Biden] talks about it, I'm not even sure that he feels that there are people there, and that's come through," Arab American Institute founder James Zogby said of the war. "It's more than just tone, it's more than just language used. It's a mindset that people are feeling, and that does make a difference, and it does, I think, open a door. The question is, how wide?"

It's also possible, some Democrats speculated, that progress in cease-fire talks could alleviate some pressure on Harris, arguing that the criticism may not be as vociferous if bombs aren't falling.

"If we're in a posture where there's progress, I think that has less of an impact than if people still feel like things are stalled," said one Democratic strategist with ties to Harris' team.

However, for uncommitted delegates at the convention, that might not be enough.

Delegates were adamant Monday in demanding both an "immediate and permanent cease-fire" and an "arms embargo" to Israel -- with the second amounting to a fundamental shift in U.S. policy. And without both, they warned, protests would continue.

"If a cease-fire deal is reached, great, we need a cease-fire immediately. We need the bombs to stop, we need all captives to be reunited with their families, Israelis and Palestinians, and we need to stop funding the occupation of Palestinians," said Abbas Alawieh, a delegate from Michigan and a leader of the uncommitted movement. "That is an unsustainable, inhumane system that sits at the heart of American foreign policy that we must address, we must break with."