NBA betting: Five picks for Tuesday

ByEric Moody ESPN logo
Tuesday, December 12, 2023

Tuesday night's NBA slate features five games to choose from. However, I am most intrigued in the game between the Golden State Warriors and the Phoenix Suns. There are so many storylines to follow. There is a great deal of familiarity between these two teams. Warriors guard Chris Paul and Suns forward Kevin Durant each played three seasons on the other side and enjoyed tremendous success. There's a beef between Klay Thompson and Devin Booker.This season, the Suns have beaten the Warriors twice. It will be interesting to see what happens Tuesday night.

Now let's dive into my betting recommendations.

Devin Booker over 40.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (-120):He has surpassed this number in two of his last three games. Booker, Durant and Bradley Beal have yet to play a regular-season game together, and the trio will have to wait to make its debut after Durant was ruled out Tuesday. The usage rate for Booker should remain high, and he has a widely publicized beef with -- you should also factor that in. Booker has averaged 30.0 points, 4.4 rebounds and 7.0 assists overhis last five games against the Warriors.

Klay Thompson over 17.5 points (-105):Thompson doesn't like Booker, and the feeling is mutual, so I'm expecting him to go all out on Tuesday. Over the last five games, Thompson has averaged 14.6 field goal attempts and 18.4 points per game. Let's dive deeper down the rabbit hole, shall we? Over his last six games against Booker, Thompson has averaged 18.3 points.

Draymond Green over 23.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (-105):Green has surpassed this line in seven of his last 10 games. The game between the Warriors and Suns has a narrow spread (Suns -3.5), implying a competitive game. Phoenix has allowed the sixth-most points per game to power forwards, and the game's total sits at 234.5 points. Green has a robust history of actively contributing to multiple statistical categories, so he has a great chance to shine here.

De'Aaron Fox over 29.5 points (-110):Fox has been killing it for the Kings, averaging 30.8 points and 3.1 triples over their last 10 games. His perimeter shooting has also improved dramatically. The 25-year-old point guard continues to elevate his game, and this is a good spot for Fox to be aggressive since the Kings' role players might not perform as well on the road in Los Angeles. On Nov. 29, Fox scored 40 points against the Clippers. L.A. is allowing the second-most points per game to point guards over the last seven games. With a usage rate of 31.6%, Fox should have no problem clearing this line.

Jayson Tatum under 39.5 combined points, rebounds and assists (-115):The Cavaliers' defense ranks seventh in points allowed per 100 possessions, showcasing their defensive prowess. They also boast the seventh-lowest opponent effective field goal percentage at 52.5%. Cleveland's defense also excels at limiting their opponents' top playmakers and are particularly adept at stifling power forwards this season. Over the last 12 games, Tatum has averaged 27.3 points, 8.3 rebounds and 4.7 assists. There is a strong chance he underperforms on Tuesday night, given the opponent.

Tonight's lines and BPI predictions

Basketball Power Index by ESPN Analytics, Odds by ESPN BET

7:30 p.m.TD Garden, Boston

Records (Against the Spread)

Cavaliers: 13-10 (9-13-1)

Celtics: 16-5 (9-10-2)

Line:Celtics (-10.5)Total:223.5

Money Line:Cavaliers (+380), Celtics (-500)

BPI Projection:Celtics by 9.8, straight up 82%, 223.1 total points.

Injury Report:

Cavaliers: Ricky Rubio, (OUT - Personal); Caris LeVert, (GTD - Knee)

Celtics: None reported

7:30 p.m.American Airlines Center, Dallas

Records (Against the Spread)

Lakers: 14-9 (11-12-0)

Mavericks: 14-8 (12-10-0)

Line:Lakers (-2.5)Total:234.5

Money Line:Lakers (-125), Mavericks (+105)

BPI Projection:Mavericks by 2.1, straight up 57%, 236.1 total points.

Injury Report:

Lakers: Anthony Davis, (NA - Hip); Jarred Vanderbilt, (NA - Back); LeBron James, (NA - Calf); Gabe Vincent, (OUT - Knee); Jalen Hood-Schifino, (OUT - Back)

Mavericks: Kyrie Irving, (GTD - Heel); Maxi Kleber, (GTD - Toe); Tim Hardaway Jr., (GTD - Back); Josh Green, (OUT - Elbow)

8 p.m.United Center, Chicago

Records (Against the Spread)

Nuggets: 15-9 (9-14-1)

Bulls: 9-15 (10-13-1)

Line:Nuggets (-7.5)Total:220.5

Money Line:Nuggets (-300), Bulls (+250)

BPI Projection:Nuggets by 4.1, straight up 65%, 228.4 total points.

Injury Report:

Nuggets: Vlatko Cancar, (OUT - Knee); Jay Huff, (GTD - Leg)

Bulls: Lonzo Ball, (OUT - Knee); Onuralp Bitim, (GTD - Illness); Alex Caruso, (GTD - Ankle); Zach LaVine, (OUT - Foot)

10 p.m.Footprint Center, Phoenix

Records (Against the Spread)

Warriors: 10-12 (9-12-1)

Suns: 12-10 (9-12-1)

Line:Suns (-3.5)Total:234.5

Money Line:Warriors (+130), Suns (-150)

BPI Projection:Suns by 1.3, straight up 54%, 232.7 total points.

Injury Report:

Warriors: Chris Paul, (GTD - Illness); Gary Payton II, (OUT - Calf)

Suns: Kevin Durant, (OUT - Ankle); Grayson Allen, (OUT - Groin); Nassir Little, (OUT - Concussion); Damion Lee, (OUT - Knee)

10:30 Arena, Los Angeles

Records (Against the Spread)

Kings: 13-8 (12-9-0)

Clippers: 12-10 (9-13-0)

Line:Clippers (-3.5)Total:234.5

Money Line:Kings (+130), Clippers (-150)

BPI Projection:Clippers by 3.5, straight up 62%, 236.6 total points.

Injury Report:

Kings: Alex Len, (OUT - Ankle)

Clippers: Mason Plumlee, (OUT - Knee); Bones Hyland, (NA - Shoulder); Moussa Diabate, (GTD - Hip); Joshua Primo, (OUT - Knee)