Tracking El Nino winter: Experts say to prepare for flooding in Central California

FRESNO COUNTY, Calif. (KFSN) -- Central California saw the return of cooler weather and rain on Monday.

The wet weather left many of us wondering what is to come this winter after we saw record-breaking storms last year.

"A 45% chance of above normal precipitation for December through February," said David Spector, a meteorologist with the National Weather Service in Hanford.

Local experts say parts of Central California have been left in a more vulnerable position due to the torrential rains and historic snowpack of 243% above the average state level.

"Central California can expect similar or worse impacts compared to last winter even if less rain or snow falls than last year," added Spector.

"Given that combination of higher probability of a wet winter and higher probability of a dry winter, think rain, and when you think rain, you think flooding," said Roger Bales, Professor of Engineering with UC Merced.

As the weather pattern shifts from La Nina to El Nino, experts explain the unexpected can still happen.

"Last year it was a La Nina year, which means we typically see these storm systems moving further north, but instead of having the storm systems moving further north, they came right through California," explained Bales.

"Although an El Nino will be in place, that does not mean that Central California is guaranteed above normal precipitation this winter," said Spector.

El Nino does not indicate that we will have a repeat of last winter, but an El Nino weather pattern is in full swing as temperatures near the equator are 2-3 degrees above normal, leading to more evaporation and water in the atmosphere.

"It's not the strongest El Nino we've had. We've had ones that are 3-4 degrees Fahrenheit above normal, but it is an official El Nino," added bales.

As the weather continues to shift, one thing experts stress is to prepare for flooding regardless of the amount of rain expected.

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