Fantasy basketball tips and NBA betting picks for Saturday
ESPN's fantasy basketball and basketball betting tips cheat sheet is your pregame destination for basketball betting predictions and our best intel and data to help you make smart fantasy and wagering decisions. NBA game odds are provided by Caesars Sportsbook, and fantasy advice is based on ESPN 10-team leagues.
What you need to know for Sunday's games
Warriors at full strength The Golden State Warriors' starting unit is labeled as "day-to-day," but the entire starting unit is expected to be intact after resting Friday night in Cleveland. The Warriors don't play again until Wednesday, so feel free to assume that they are at full strength against the Nets tonight.
Plenty Of Points: Keep an eye on the health of Fred VanVleet, but as long as he is active, this is a green light situation for over bettors: overs are 7-4 in the past 11 games in which the Knicks have been underdogs and 8-4 in the past 12 in which the Raptors have been favored.
The 3 P's Of Betting: OK, so maybe it isn't as catchy as the five D's of dodgeball, but "Points when Pelicans are Puppies" has been a strong betting pattern up to this point: overs are 15-5 when New Orleans Pelicans are an underdog this season.
Two-For-One special Two things can be true at once so why not play a pair of trends within a single game? The Lakers are 7-1-1 ATS in their past nine as an underdog, so we are beginning our story with aLos Angeles Lakerscover. If we are operating under that assumption, the fact that under tickets have cashed in nine of the past 10 Portland Trail Blazers ATS losses becomes noteworthy.
-- Jim McCormick & Kyle Soppe
Game of the night
8:30 p.m ET, Chase Center, San Francisco
Line:Warriors (-7.5)
Money line:Nets (+250), Warriors (-320)
Total:236points
BPI Projected Total:230.4points
BPI Win%:Nets(50.6%)
Questionable:Andre Iguodala (hip), Andrew Wiggins (foot), Draymond Green (tie), Stephen Curry (hip), Klay Thompson (achilles)
Ruled Out:Kevin Durant (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
We noted it above but it bears repeating here: The Warriors starting unit is labeled as "day-to-day", but the entire starting unit is expected to be intact after resting Friday night in Cleveland. The Warriors don't play again until Wednesday, so feel free to assume that they are at full strength against the Nets tonight.
Breaking down the rest of the slate
2:30 p.m ET, American Airlines Center, Dallas
Line:Mavericks (-1.5)
Money line:Clippers (+105), Mavericks (-125)
Total:223points
BPI Projected Total:227.6points
BPI Win%:Mavericks(50.2%)
Questionable:Luke Kennard (calf), McKinley Wright IV (foot)
Ruled Out:John Wall, Christian Wood (thumb), Maxi Kleber (hamstring)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Dorian Finney Smith (available in 91.8% of leagues): has started the last two games after missing a month due to injury. With Christian Wood out on Sunday, Finney Smith should have a bigger role than usual, particularly on the glass. -Snellings
Best Bet: Paul George over 20.5 points. George is playing his second game in a row, for the first time since January 5. This suggests to me that he is feeling a bit closer to normal. George is averaging 23.2 PPG on the season, and in the seven games before he managed only 14 minutes on Jan. 5 he averaged 27.6 PPG. -Snellings
3:30 p.m ET, FTX Arena, Miami
Line:Heat (-8)
Money line:Pelicans (+270), Heat (-345)
Total:218points
BPI Projected Total:221.6points
BPI Win%:Heat(68.3%)
Questionable:Brandon Ingram (toe), Naji Marshall (toe)
Ruled Out:Zion Williamson (hamstring) (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Fantasy Streamer: Trey Murphy III (available in 81.2% of leagues) had a nice bounce-back game on Friday, after having scored only five points in his previous outing. With his 18 points and two 3-pointers on Friday, Murphy has now scored at least 15 points with at least one 3-pointer in four of his last five games, and he also averaged 4.0 RPG and 1.5 SPG in those four outings. -Snellings
Fantasy Streamer: Jaxson Hayes (available in 99.4% of leagues) is coming off one of his best performances of the season, scoring 14 points with 6 rebounds in 17 minutes against the Magic. He should get the chance to build on that momentum with extra playing time on Sunday, with Naji Marshall listed as doubtful to play. -Snellings
6:00 p.m ET, Scotiabank Arena, Toronto, Ontario
Line:Knicks (Pick)
Money line:Knicks (-110), Raptors (-110)
Total:222points
BPI Projected Total:229.3points
BPI Win%:Raptors(54.3%)
Questionable:Dalano Banton (hip)
Ruled Out:Mitchell Robinson (thumb), Otto Porter Jr. (foot)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
8:00 p.m ET, Ball Arena, Denver
Line:Nuggets (-6)
Money line:Thunder (+185), Nuggets (-225)
Total:238.5points
BPI Projected Total:235points
BPI Win%:Nuggets(75.9%)
Questionable:Nikola Jokic (hamstring) (thigh), Vlatko Cancar (illness), Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (ankle)
Ruled Out:None (wrist), Aleksej Pokusevski (leg) (leg)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
8:30 p.m ET, Footprint Center, Phoenix
Line:Grizzlies (-9.5)
Money line:Grizzlies (-455), Suns (+345)
Total:233points
BPI Projected Total:232.3points
BPI Win%:Grizzlies(72.8%)
Questionable:Chris Paul (hip), Josh Okogie (nose)
Ruled Out:Devin Booker (groin), Jae Crowder (not injured), Landry Shamet (foot), Cameron Payne (foot), Danny Green (knee)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best Bet: Desmond Bane over 20.5 points (FanDuel): Bane has averaged 23.5 PPG in his last four outings, with at least 25 points scored in three of the four. On Sunday, he faces a Suns team that has allowed the eighth-most points scored by the opposing shooting guard (24.1 PPG). -Snellings
9:00 p.m ET, Moda Center, Portland
Line:Blazers (-6)
Money line:Lakers (+205), Blazers (-250)
Total:239.5points
BPI Projected Total:239.5points
BPI Win%:Blazers(65.8%)
Questionable:Lonnie Walker IV (knee), Gary Payton II (hip)
Ruled Out:Anthony Davis (foot) (hamstring) (out)
Note: BPI numbers factored in players who are ruled out but assumes questionable players will play
Best Bet: Lakers +6.0.: The Lakers have won six of their last 10 games, and are coming off a dramatic come-from-behind victory to break the Grizzlies' 11-game winning streak on Friday. The Trail Blazers are only 3-7 in their last 10 games, and have lost two straight. The biggest question is whether LeBron James will play; he's listed as questionable with a sore ankle, but has been playing through the injury and has played in five straight games, averaging 32.4 PPG, 9.8 RPG and 8.6 APG in that stretch. -Snellings
