Playing dumb: Behind the betting interest on Bronny James to be the No. 1 pick

The proposition was seemingly so outlandish that some bookmakers were hesitant to post odds on it: Would anyone really bet on Bronny James to be the No. 1 pick in the NBA draft?

The answer was yes, and lots of them, and not just recreational bettors, either.

On May 12, after some debate, BetMGM opened Bronny as a 200-1 long shot to be the first pick. The son of active legend LeBron James, Bronny didn't have the playing résumé typically required to even be in the discussion as the top pick. It didn't matter.

Bets started showing up on Bronny, one after the other at BetMGM. Most of the wagers were small, but there were hundreds of them, from across the country. On the day before the draft, there had been more bets on Bronny to be the top pick than any other player at BetMGM.

"We were debating even putting it up, to be honest with you," Halvor Egeland, senior trader for BetMGM, said during a draft day phone interview with ESPN. "We definitely didn't expect it to strike the most bets when we put it up."

It's not the first time that the American betting public has latched onto a long shot with an unrealistic narrative. Each year, bettors place wagers on Charles Barkley to win the American Century Championship at 5,000-1 odds or higher. Barkley, a notoriously bad golfer, finished 105 points behind last year's winner,Stephen Curry, and has never finished better than 60th in the tournament. Last year, it was Deion Sanders and the Colorado Buffaloesto win the national championship at 300-1 odds. The Buffaloes, coming off a one-win campaign, entered the 2023 season having attracted more title bets than established contenders such as theFlorida State Seminoles and Texas Longhorns. Coach Prime and Colorado fell short of winning the national championship, finishing 4-8, last in the Pac-12.

This year, it was Bronny, who averaged 4.8 points per game coming off the bench for the USC Trojans as a freshman last season. Still, the combination of Bronny's pedigree, his father's influence in the NBA and a draft class without a consensus top pick was enough for an unexpected number of bettors to take a shot on him going first.

"I think it's more of a LeBron James bet than it is a Bronny bet," Egeland said, referencing the theory that a team might have drafted Bronny in hopes of attracting LeBron, too.

Some of the bettors who bet on Bronny had ulterior motives.

Why bettors took a shot on Bronny

Steve, a 27-year-old avid sports bettor in Chicago, explained his reasoning for placing $60 worth of bets on Bronny James to go No. 1.

"Every once in a while you get to look especially stupid, and, to me, this is one of the best opportunities to look dumb that I've seen in a long time," Steve told ESPN about his decision to bet on Bronny. "I don't even view Bronny as a good college player and think there's basically no chance that he goes No. 1 overall."

Steve bets player props and has had enough success that sportsbooks have significantly restricted the amount he's allowed to wager, down to a few bucks at some spots. To hopefully trick the books into raising his betting limits, from time to time, Steve tries to "play dumb". For example, he bet on Colorado to win the national championship last year and has backed Tiger Woods in recent major championships. The idea was the same with his Bronny bets: look as square as possible.

"I've been limited at all these books," Steve said. "I'm not really betting that Bronny will go No. 1 overall; what I'm effectively betting is that there's some chance that all these books will say, 'whoever bet Bronny must be dumb' and then they'll give me better limits. That's the bet that I'm making." Steve was not alone in using Bronny bets to raise their limits at sportsbooks. Alex Baker, a former high-level daily fantasy sports player, saw social media posts about heavy action on Bronny going No. 1 and decided to put $20 on it. He posted a screenshot of his bet slip on X with a tongue-in-cheek line.

Baker placed the bet mostly to have a little fun on X but also admits that in the back of his mind he hoped that by hopping on the public betting bandwagon the sportsbooks might up his limits. Baker said he attempted to bet $100 but was only allowed a smaller amount.

"When I put the bet in on FanDuel I got limited to $22.50, so they were pretty scared at taking the action on this," Baker told ESPN. "But I've won enough off of FanDuel, so I thought I'd give 20 bucks back."

There was also sincere sharp action on Bronny to be taken by theLos Angeles Lakerswith the No. 55 pick. The over/under on Bronny's draft position opened in the mid-40s and closed at 54.5, with sportsbooks charging a premium to bet that he'd be taken at 55 or later. At BetRivers sportsbooks, more money was bet on the over on Bronny's draft position than any other wager offered on the draft.

Bronny would indeed go to the Lakers in the second round at pick No. 55, resulting in a small loss for some sportsbooks, but nothing like what they would've endured if he had gone No. 1.

Money kept showing up on Bronny to be the top pick all the way until NBA commissioner Adam Silver announced the start of the draft. BetMGM reported taking a $500 bet on Bronny to be the top pick at 250-1 odds in the hours leading up to the first round. When BetMGM closed betting on the odds to go No. 1, there were more bets on Bronny thanZaccharie Risacher, the eventual top pick.

Egeland said while the amount BetMGM would've lost if Bronny had gone No. 1 wasn't massive, he added "we definitely wouldn't love it."

"It's by far our biggest liability for the draft, probably 10 times more than any other individual selection," Egeland said.

As of Monday, there had been more bets at BetMGM on Bronny James to win Rookie of the Year than on any other player. His odds: 250-1.