SurveyUSA CA Election Poll

May 18, 2009 12:00:00 AM PDT
24 Hours Until Voting Ends in CA Special Election, 5 of 6 Ballot Measures Fail: With half of votes cast and 24 hours remaining before voting ends on 6 state of California ballot propositions, 5 of 6 measures appear to be defeated, according to a SurveyUSA poll conducted exclusively for KABC-TV Los Angeles, KPIX-TV San Francisco, KGTV-TV San Diego, and KFSN-TV Fresno. On Proposition 1A, The Rainy Day Budget Stabilization and Accountability Fund, opposition today is at 57%, up from from 29% when SurveyUSA began polling on the measure 60 days ago. 72% of Republicans and Conservatives oppose the measure, which is opposed by majorities in all regions of the state, among both men and women, and among both young and old. Support for 1A is flat.

On Proposition 1B, The Education Funding Payment Plan, opposition is now at 54%, up from 30% when SurveyUSA first polled on the measure 60 days ago. There is support for 1B among some groups -- African Americans, Democrats, and liberals -- but majorities of whites, Asian-Americans, Republicans, Conservatives and Moderates, and majorities in every region of the state, oppose 1B.

On Proposition 1C, The Lottery Modernization Act, opposition is now at 56%, twice what it was when SurveyUSA first polled on the measure 60 days ago. Support is flat. Majorities oppose 1C in every region of the state.

On Proposition 1D, on Children's Services Funding, opposition is now at 54%, twice what it was when SurveyUSA first polled on the measure 60 days ago. Support is flat.

On Proposition 1E, Mental Health Funding, opposition is now at 55%, up from 30% when SurveyUSA first polled on the measure 60 days ago. Support is flat.

Proposition 1F, on Elected Officials' Salaries, remains the one proposition with a chance to pass. Today, 1F is supported 5:4, with 1 in 7 likely voters telling SurveyUSA that they are not yet certain how they will vote on 1F. 1F is supported by an unusual coalition of men, older voters, whites, Asian Americans, Democrats, moderates, liberals, Bay Area voters and Central Valley voters. 1F is opposed by Inland Empire voters. Voters in Greater LA are split, as are women, younger voters, Republicans, independents, conservatives, and African-Americans. Support for 1F is above 50% among those who tell SurveyUSA they have already voted. But: 1 in 5 of those who have not voted are not certain how they will vote, so there remains some drama on 1F.

Filtering: SurveyUSA interviewed 1,300 California adults 05/15/09 through 05/17/09. Of the adults, 1,105 were registered to vote. Of the registered voters, 636 were determined by SurveyUSA to have already voted, or to be likely to vote on or before the 05/19/09 special election. Early voting began 04/20/09. Half of those interviewed tell SurveyUSA they have already voted.

On Proposition 1A, the Rainy Day Budget Stabilization and Accountability Fund, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1A, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"}

32% Certain Yes
57% Certain No
10% Not Certain

On Proposition 1B, the Education Funding Payment Plan, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1B, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"}

37% Certain Yes
54% Certain No
9% Not Certain

On Proposition 1C, the Lottery Modernization Act, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1C, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"}

29% Certain Yes
56% Certain No
16% Not Certain

On Proposition 1D, on Childrens Services Funding, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1D, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"}

35% Certain Yes
54% Certain No
11% Not Certain

On Proposition 1E, on Mental Health Funding, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1E, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"}

33% Certain Yes
55% Certain No
11% Not Certain

On Proposition 1F, on Elected Officials' Salaries, are you... Certain to vote yes? Certain to vote no? Or not certain? {Not Certain voters were asked: "At this hour, on Proposition 1F, do you ... lean toward yes? lean toward no, or do you not lean?"}

48% Certain Yes
38% Certain No
14% Not Certain

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